Learn from the Match Preview: Yankees vs Guardians Game Forecast – April 21, 2025

New York Yankees

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Cleveland Guardians

On April 21, 2025, the Cleveland Guardians will host the New York Yankees at Progressive Field for the first game of their series. Both teams come into this matchup with solid records, as the Guardians sit at 12-9 and the Yankees boast a 14-8 record. The Yankees, currently ranked 2nd in MLB offensively, have been on fire, showcasing their power with 38 home runs this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians rank 15th overall in offense, but they have been effective at hitting home runs themselves, ranking 9th in that category.

Projected starters Gavin Williams and Clarke Schmidt will take the mound for their respective teams. Williams, who has had a mixed start to the season with a 1-1 record and an average ERA of 4.58, faces a tough challenge against a potent Yankees lineup. His high fly-ball rate (40%) could spell trouble against New York’s power hitters. Additionally, Williams has struggled with walks, holding a 12.1 BB% this year, which plays right into the hands of the Yankees’ patient approach at the plate.

On the other side, Clarke Schmidt comes in with a below-average ERA of 4.76. While he may have a slight edge in the Power Rankings, sitting at 62nd among starting pitchers, his low strikeout rate (8.7 K%) could hinder his ability to navigate the Guardians’ lineup, which ranks 5th in MLB for least strikeouts.

With the Game Total set at an average 8.5 runs, betting markets favor the Yankees with a moneyline of -120, but the Guardians’ strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, could keep them competitive. As both teams look to solidify their standings, this matchup promises to be a closely contested battle.

New York Yankees Insights

• Clarke Schmidt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 8 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Clarke Schmidt today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Austin Wells has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (76% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The 12.6% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 offense in baseball this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (+110)
  Among every team on the slate today, the best infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Nolan Jones has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.3-mph average to last year’s 88.3-mph average.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cleveland Guardians – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 8 of their last 14 games (+4.40 Units / 24% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+2.85 Units / 43% ROI)
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Cody Bellinger has hit the Total Bases Under in 10 of his last 15 games (+6.55 Units / 36% ROI)