Learn from the Match Preview: Rockies vs Reds Game Forecast – (July 11, 2024

Colorado Rockies

@

Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and Colorado Rockies gear up for game four of their series on July 11, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, the Reds look to bolster their season record and maintain their momentum. Cincinnati, sitting at 44-49, has had a below-average season but appears stronger compared to the Rockies, who are struggling with a 33-60 record. Despite both teams’ woes, the Reds hold a key edge in this matchup.

Cincinnati’s starting pitcher, Hunter Greene, has been a bright spot in an otherwise disappointing season. With an ERA of 3.45 and a 5-4 Win/Loss record over 18 starts, Greene ranks as the 68th best starting pitcher according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. His elite strikeout ability (26.7 K%) could dominate a Rockies lineup that strikes out frequently (3rd most in MLB). Greene is projected to pitch 5.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out eight batters.

On the offensive side, the Reds have the 20th best offense in MLB, with notable strengths in home runs (19th) and stolen bases (1st). However, their batting average has been a significant weakness, ranking 27th. Spencer Steer has been the standout hitter for the Reds over the past week, notching six hits, four home runs, and a staggering 1.192 OPS in his last seven games.

The Rockies, meanwhile, are expected to start Austin Gomber, whose season has been less impressive. With a 4.47 ERA and a 2-5 Win/Loss record over 17 starts, Gomber’s projections are less optimistic, allowing 2.9 earned runs and striking out 4.5 batters in 5.0 innings. The Reds’ high strikeout rate (6th most in MLB) might play into Gomber’s hands, but his overall performance remains a concern.

The Rockies’ offense, ranking 18th overall, has shown average production in batting average (14th) but struggles in power (23rd in home runs) and speed (20th in stolen bases). Brenton Doyle has been a recent highlight, with a .474 batting average and a 1.636 OPS over the past week.

Vegas odds favor the Reds, with a moneyline of -195 and an implied win probability of 64%. The Rockies, as +165 underdogs, have a 36% implied win probability. With a game total set at 9.0 runs, expect an offensive showcase. Given the Reds’ edge in starting pitching and recent offensive surge, they seem well-positioned to secure another victory in this series.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Austin Gomber – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Austin Gomber has a reverse platoon split and should be aided by facing 9 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brendan Rodgers – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Extreme groundball bats like Brendan Rodgers generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Greene.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)
  Ryan McMahon has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Hunter Greene – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Hunter Greene’s 97.1-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Austin Slater is projected to hit 6th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Today’s version of the Reds projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .302 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .313 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 46 of their last 81 games (+11.75 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+160)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 14 of their last 30 away games (+7.95 Units / 26% ROI)
• Jake Cave – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)
  Jake Cave has hit the Runs Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+7.25 Units / 28% ROI)