Learn from the Match Preview: Rockies vs Giants Game Forecast – May 01, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants prepare to host the Colorado Rockies on May 1, 2025, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions. The Giants boast a solid 19-12 record this season, while the Rockies are struggling at 5-25. This National League West matchup is significant, especially with the Giants looking to build on their successful start. In their last game, the Giants secured a win, showcasing their potential to capitalize on the Rockies’ misfortunes.

The Giants are projected to start Justin Verlander, who, despite a 0-2 record this season, has shown above-average capabilities with a 4.37 xFIP, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky. Verlander projects to pitch 6.1 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs, indicating he could be a key factor in this matchup. On the other hand, the Rockies will counter with Kyle Freeland, who has yet to find his footing this season, holding a 0-4 record and a troubling 5.93 ERA. Freeland’s low strikeout rate of 17.0% could be exploited by the Giants’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 6th in MLB.

Offensively, the Giants’ lineup ranks 19th overall, but they have the potential to improve, especially against a Rockies pitching staff that has struggled. The projections suggest that the Giants could score around 4.52 runs today, while the Rockies are projected for a mere 2.98 runs, reflecting their offensive woes. With a strong bullpen ranked 5th in MLB, the Giants appear well-equipped to secure a victory in this opening game of the series.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Kyle Freeland’s 91-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 17th percentile among all SPs.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Kyle Farmer – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)
  Kyle Farmer is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Projected catcher Hunter Goodman profiles as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-220)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.1% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Mike Yastrzemski has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Colorado Rockies only has 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games (+8.55 Units / 46% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+610/-1200)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 10 games (+9.60 Units / 96% ROI)