Learn from the Match Preview: Brewers vs Twins Game Forecast – June 22, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers square off on June 22, 2025, at Target Field in what is the third game of their series. Both teams are coming off a decisive match yesterday, where the Brewers shut out the Twins with a commanding 9-0 victory. At this point in the season, the Milwaukee Brewers hold a record of 42-35, positioning themselves above .500, while the Minnesota Twins are at 37-39, struggling to gain momentum.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Danny Coulombe, a left-handed pitcher with a tough outing ahead. Coulombe’s average of 3.0 innings pitched per game and his projected 1.6 earned runs hint at a challenging day. His projections indicate he will likely give up 3.2 hits and 0.8 walks, which could be problematic against a Brewers offense that, while ranked 20th in batting average and 25th in home runs, still possesses enough talent to capitalize on pitching mistakes.

The Brewers counter with Quinn Priester, a right-hander who has a respectable Win/Loss record of 5-2 this season. Although Priester’s xFIP suggests some luck in his 3.46 ERA, he’s still projected to go 5.2 innings, allowing about 3.0 earned runs. With the Twins’ offense ranking a lackluster 21st in team batting average, they may struggle to break through against Priester.

Betting markets see the Twins favored with a moneyline of -130, indicating a belief in a close contest. However, with the Twins’ offensive struggles and Priester’s recent solid performance—where he pitched 6 innings with just 1 earned run allowed on June 15—the Brewers may have the upper hand. As both teams look to gain ground, the stakes are high for Minnesota to find answers and for Milwaukee to build on their recent success.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Quinn Priester – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Quinn Priester in the 9th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Sal Frelick’s average exit velocity has fallen off recently; his 85.3-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 77.8-mph over the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (-135)
  The Minnesota Twins infield defense profiles as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Milwaukee’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins’ bullpen grades out as the 10th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 66 games (+8.30 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 75 games (+13.40 Units / 16% ROI)
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-135/+105)
  Matt Wallner has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+6.40 Units / 22% ROI)