Learn About Yankees vs Giants Picks and Betting Trends – Wednesday March 25, 2026

New York Yankees

@

San Francisco Giants

The Yankees are scheduled to start Max Fried (0-0, 0.00 ERA) against Giants starting pitcher Logan Webb (0-0, 0.00 ERA) on Wednesday. This will be the first start of the season for both Fried and Webb. Today, Fried projects for 5.39 innings pitched with 1.8 ER, 4.7 hits, 5.3 strikeouts, and 1.7 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Webb’s average outcome to be 5.31 IP, 2.0 ER, 4.6 H, 6.3 strikeouts, and 1.5 walks.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-120/-110)
  Compared to average, Max Fried has been given a longer leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 7.7 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Cody Bellinger – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Cody Bellinger is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of San Francisco (#1-best on the slate today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• The New York Yankees have been the luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Logan Webb – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  The New York Yankees have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Logan Webb in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Since the start of last season, Luis Arraez’s 1.1% Barrel%, a reliable standard for measuring power, places him in the 2nd percentile among his peers.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen grades out as the worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+9.10 Units / 22% ROI)
• New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 39 of their last 62 games (+17.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)
  Heliot Ramos has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+7.75 Units / 27% ROI)