Learn About Yankees vs Giants Picks and Betting Trends - Saturday March 28, 2026

-130O/U: 8.5
(-110/-110)+110

Will Warren – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Will Warren to be limited in this game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.
Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
Aaron Judge’s 25.5% Barrel% (an advanced stat to measure power) is in the 100th percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Jazz Chisholm – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+200/-265)
Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)
Tyler Mahle has been lucky since the start of last season, putting up a 2.18 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.20 — a 2.02 gap.
Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
Luis Arraez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)
Luis Arraez’s 86-mph exit velocity on flyballs (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 1st percentile since the start of last season.
Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
Tyler Mahle – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher today, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 43 games (+9.20 Units / 19% ROI)
New York Yankees – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)
The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 40 of their last 63 games (+18.95 Units / 18% ROI)
Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
Jung Hoo Lee has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 34% ROI)

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