Learn About Yankees vs Athletics Picks and Betting Trends – Friday September 20, 2024

New York Yankees

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Oakland Athletics

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face the New York Yankees on September 20, 2024, at the Oakland Coliseum, both teams are heading in opposite directions this season. The Yankees boast an impressive 89-64 record, indicating a strong campaign as they strive for playoff positioning. Meanwhile, the Athletics, at 67-86, have struggled throughout the year, as they look to finish the season on a more positive note.

With the Yankees heavily favored and holding a 64% implied win probability, Gerrit Cole will take the mound for New York. Cole has been a reliable presence, possessing a solid 3.97 ERA. The Yankees’ powerful offense, which ranks 3rd best in MLB, leads the league in home runs and will look to capitalize on Cole’s effectiveness against a susceptible Athletics squad. Aaron Judge, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .368 batting average and 1.309 OPS, will be a key figure in their offensive plans.

On the flip side, the Athletics will counter with J.T. Ginn, who has shown glimpses of potential despite an unfavorable 4.94 ERA. The Athletics’ offense, though average overall, has the 6th most home runs in MLB, a factor that could play a role against Cole’s high-flyball tendencies. Brent Rooker has been a standout for Oakland in recent action, showcasing a .417 batting average and 1.148 OPS over the last week.

Despite the Athletics being big underdogs with a 36% implied win probability, their ability to hit home runs could keep them in the game. However, given the Yankees’ superior record, solid pitching, and potent lineup, they remain the favorites to come out on top in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-195)
  Among every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Anthony Volpe is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-195)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Oakland Athletics Insights

• J.T. Ginn – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Because groundball batters hold a big advantage over flyball pitchers, J.T. Ginn and his 49% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a difficult position in today’s game going up against 1 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Brent Rooker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Brent Rooker has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.2-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Oakland’s 89.3-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the game: #6 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+165)
  The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 73 games (+11.10 Units / 14% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 91 games (+13.85 Units / 14% ROI)
• Zack Gelof – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Zack Gelof has hit the Total Bases Over in 12 of his last 14 games (+9.40 Units / 48% ROI)