Learn About Reds vs Phillies Picks and Betting Trends – Saturday July 05, 2025

Cincinnati Reds

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Philadelphia Phillies

The July 5, 2025 matchup at Citizens Bank Park features the Philadelphia Phillies hosting the Cincinnati Reds in a critical National League contest. Both teams are competing for playoff positioning, with the Phillies sitting at 51-37 and enjoying a strong season, while the Reds are 46-42, showing an above-average performance.

In their last encounter, the Phillies prevailed over the Reds, marking their second game in the series. With Ranger Suarez projected to take the mound for Philadelphia, expectations are high. Suarez is ranked as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an impressive 7-2 record and a stellar 2.00 ERA. However, his 3.35 xFIP suggests some potential regression ahead, as he may have benefited from a bit of luck. On the other side, Nick Lodolo, ranked 81st, has a 5-5 record and a respectable 3.52 ERA, though similar indicators point to him being in a fortunate position this season.

The Phillies’ offense ranks 9th overall in MLB, with strong performances reflected in a team batting average of .261, placing them 6th in the league. In contrast, the Reds’ offense sits at a middle-of-the-pack 14th, with their overall performance lacking the same punch as their opponents. This disparity is critical, especially considering the Phillies’ impressive implied team total of 4.77 runs for today’s game.

With the current betting odds favoring the Phillies at -170, this suggests they are more likely to win than the odds imply, making them a compelling option for bettors. As the teams clash once more, expect an exciting battle where the Phillies have the edge both on the mound and at the plate.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 92.3 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Nick Lodolo places him the 81st percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Elly De La Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Extreme flyball bats like Elly De La Cruz tend to be less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Compared to their .320 overall projected rate, the .306 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Cincinnati Reds projected lineup in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal missing some of their usual firepower.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

• Ranger Suarez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ranger Suarez has utilized his non-fastballs 9.2% more often this season (58.3%) than he did last year (49.1%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  J.T. Realmuto has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Philadelphia Phillies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Philadelphia Phillies’ bullpen projects as the 10th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-215)
  The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+10.95 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 62 games (+8.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• J.T. Realmuto – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  J.T. Realmuto has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.45 Units / 38% ROI)