Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Brewers vs Giants – Tuesday April 22, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Francisco Giants

On April 22, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park for the second game of their series. This matchup comes after the Giants secured a solid 5-2 victory over the Brewers the previous day, highlighting the Giants’ strong season with a 15-8 record. Meanwhile, the Brewers sit at 12-11, showing signs of an above-average performance but still struggling to find consistency.

The Giants will send Jordan Hicks to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has had a rocky start to the season, posting a 1-2 record with a 6.04 ERA. However, advanced projections suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his 4.37 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky. Hicks projects to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.1 earned runs, which is relatively good given his recent struggles.

Opposing Hicks is Jose Quintana, a left-handed pitcher who has been exceptional so far, boasting a 2-0 record and a stellar 0.71 ERA. Despite his success, projections suggest that he may be overperforming, as his 3.82 xFIP points to potential regression. Quintana is projected to pitch 5.3 innings, but he may face challenges against a Giants offense that ranks 4th in MLB for strikeouts.

As the Giants look to build on their recent success, they hold an implied team total of 4.27 runs for today’s game, reflecting their status as betting favorites with a moneyline of -140. With a strong bullpen ranked 3rd in MLB, San Francisco is well-positioned to capitalize on any opportunities. In contrast, the Brewers will need to find a way to break through against Hicks and improve their offensive output to keep pace in this crucial matchup.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the strongest among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Barrel% of Jackson Chourio has significantly improved, with an increase from 7.9% last year to 13.4% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• As a team, Milwaukee Brewers bats have done poorly when assessing hitting balls in the launch angle band that tends to best-produce home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing worst in the game.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Given that groundball pitchers have a substantial edge over groundball bats, Jordan Hicks and his 51.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today’s game going up against 5 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+145)
  Wilmer Flores has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 85.7-mph average to last year’s 83.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-125)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• Brice Turang – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Brice Turang has hit the Total Bases Over in 16 of his last 25 games (+8.45 Units / 27% ROI)