Learn About Player Prop Odds Breakdown for Brewers vs Giants – Tuesday April 22, 2025

Milwaukee Brewers

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San Francisco Giants

On April 22, 2025, the San Francisco Giants will host the Milwaukee Brewers at Oracle Park in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. The Giants are enjoying a strong season with a record of 15-8, currently placing them in a competitive position. In contrast, the Brewers sit a bit further back at 12-11, indicating a season that’s been above average but not quite at the level of their opposition.

The Giants are projected to start right-hander Jordan Hicks, who has had a rocky season so far with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 6.04. Despite these struggles, Hicks’s advanced metrics suggest he may be due for a turnaround, as his xFIP of 4.37 indicates some bad luck in his performances. On the other hand, the Brewers will counter with left-hander Jose Quintana, who has been stellar with a 2-0 record and an impressive ERA of 0.71. However, his xFIP of 3.82 suggests he might not maintain such dominance.

This game marks the second in a series between these teams, following an intense matchup where the Giants narrowly defeated the Brewers. The Giants’ offense ranks 18th overall but has shown flashes of power, ranking 12th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ offense is struggling, sitting at 21st overall, despite a decent batting average of .263, ranking 14th.

Betting markets have set the Giants’ moneyline at -135, implying a close contest. With Hicks’s potential for improvement and Quintana’s luck running out, the Giants might be positioned well to capitalize on their stronger overall performance this season. As the projections suggest, this game could be pivotal for both teams as they navigate through the early parts of the season.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+115)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense grades out as the strongest among every team playing today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Jackson Chourio – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  The Barrel% of Jackson Chourio has significantly improved, with an increase from 7.9% last year to 13.4% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Milwaukee Brewers with a 20.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  Given that groundball pitchers have a substantial edge over groundball bats, Jordan Hicks and his 51.2% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in today’s game going up against 5 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Wilmer Flores has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 85.7-mph average to last year’s 83.5-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+100)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 22 games (+5.55 Units / 21% ROI)
• Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 20 games (+8.40 Units / 38% ROI)