Learn About Orioles vs Rangers Picks and Betting Trends – Sunday July 21, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and Baltimore Orioles are set to face off at Globe Life Field on July 21, 2024, in the third game of their series. The Orioles have dominated so far, winning the previous game 8-4. The Rangers, sitting at 46-52, are struggling this season, while the Orioles boast an impressive 60-38 record.

Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Rangers. Despite an ERA of 3.79, Heaney’s 3-10 win/loss record and #135 ranking among starting pitchers indicate a below-average season. Heaney’s high fly-ball rate (38%) could spell trouble against the Orioles’ powerful offense, which ranks 1st in home runs with 149 this season. Moreover, Heaney’s tendency to throw strikes might be exploited by Baltimore’s low-walk offense, which ranks 4th in fewest walks.

On the other side, the Orioles will start Dean Kremer, who has had a mixed season. Kremer’s 4-5 record and 4.38 ERA are accompanied by concerning peripheral stats like a 5.36 xERA and 5.08 FIP, suggesting he’s been fortunate so far. His high hit and walk projections (5.2 hits and 1.7 walks per game) could offer the Rangers some opportunities.

Offensively, Baltimore holds a clear edge. They rank 2nd in overall offense, 9th in batting average, and 1st in home runs. Gunnar Henderson has been a standout, with a .289 average, 28 home runs, and 14 stolen bases. The Rangers, ranked 22nd in offense, will rely heavily on Marcus Semien, who leads the team in runs (62), RBIs (51), and home runs (13).

THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, favors the Rangers with a 56% win probability, higher than their implied probability of 53%. Betting markets suggest a close game, but the advanced stats give Texas a slight edge.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Dean Kremer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Dean Kremer’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this season (53.8% vs. 48.3% last year) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Utilizing Statcast data, Gunnar Henderson ranks in the 97th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .375.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• James McCann – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  James McCann hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Andrew Heaney – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Andrew Heaney’s 90.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a notable 1-mph decline from last year’s 91.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Marcus Semien – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Marcus Semien has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 6.4% seasonal rate to 20% in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 79 games (+11.25 Units / 13% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 28 of their last 46 away games (+13.15 Units / 23% ROI)
• Travis Jankowski – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Travis Jankowski has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 13 of his last 15 games at home (+9.75 Units / 46% ROI)