Learn About Marlins vs Giants Picks and Betting Trends – Wednesday June 25, 2025

Miami Marlins

@

San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will look to bounce back after a tough loss to the Miami Marlins, falling 4-2 in their previous matchup on June 24, 2025. This game marks the second contest in the series, and the Giants, currently holding a 44-35 record, are having a solid season compared to the Marlins, who sit at 32-45 and are struggling significantly.

Logan Webb is expected to take the mound for the Giants, boasting a stellar ERA of 2.49 and ranking as the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. His most recent outing on June 19 highlighted his abilities, as he went 7 innings while allowing only 1 earned run and striking out 9 batters. Webb’s high groundball rate of 55% could serve him well against a Marlins offense that has hit the fewest home runs in the league this season.

On the flip side, Miami will counter with Edward Cabrera, who has an average ERA of 3.81 this season. Cabrera has faced challenges, especially with his control, as he ranks among the highest in walks allowed at 10.2%. This could play into the Giants’ hands, given their patience at the plate and ranking 4th in MLB for walks drawn.

The Giants’ offense has struggled overall, ranking 23rd in the league in key categories such as batting average and home runs. However, they may find success today against Cabrera, whose projections indicate he may only pitch 4.9 innings, which could expose the Marlins’ weak bullpen, currently ranked 25th in MLB. With San Francisco’s bullpen rated as the 2nd best, the Giants are poised to capitalize on any offensive opportunities.

Given the current odds, the Giants are significant favorites for this matchup, with a moneyline of -225. The projections suggest an average team total of around 4.16 runs for the Giants, while the Marlins are expected to struggle with an implied total of just 2.84 runs. With strong pitching and a chance to exploit Cabrera’s control issues, the Giants appear well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Edward Cabrera’s four-seamer usage has decreased by 13.6% from last season to this one (27.4% to 13.8%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Xavier Edwards – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.1-mph figure last season has lowered to 85.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Dane Myers, Connor Norby, Heriberto Hernandez, Kyle Stowers).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-220)
  Among all the teams today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the San Francisco Giants.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)
  Extreme flyball batters like Mike Yastrzemski tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 32 of their last 52 games (+10.20 Units / 17% ROI)
• Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs (+110/-140)
  Edward Cabrera has hit the Earned Runs Under in 7 of his last 8 away games (+5.95 Units / 55% ROI)