Learn About Mariners vs Mets Picks and Betting Trends – Sunday August 17, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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New York Mets

On August 17, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Seattle Mariners at BB&T Ballpark in what promises to be an exciting interleague matchup. The Mets are looking to build on their recent victory over the Mariners, having won their last game 3-1. Both teams are enjoying above-average seasons, with the Mets sitting at 65-58 and the Mariners at 68-56.

Pitching will be a key factor in this game, as the Mets are set to start Clay Holmes, who has had a mixed season with a 9-6 record and a solid 3.71 ERA. However, he has struggled with control, evidenced by his high walk rate of 9.6%. On the other hand, George Kirby, projected to start for the Mariners, is having a standout season with an 8-5 record and a 3.71 ERA. Kirby has displayed excellent command, reflected in his low walk rate of 5.9%, making him a tough matchup for the Mets.

From an offensive standpoint, the Mets rank 11th in MLB, but their batting average sits at a disappointing 20th. They have power in their lineup, ranking 8th in home runs. Meanwhile, the Mariners boast the 12th best offense overall and are 3rd in home runs, showcasing their ability to hit for power. The projections suggest that while the Mets may struggle to capitalize on walks, they could benefit from Kirby’s tendency to limit those free passes.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, sportsbooks have given the Mariners a slight edge with a moneyline of -125 compared to the Mets at +105. As both teams vie for a victory, this matchup could swing either way, especially with the Mets looking to capitalize on their recent success against Seattle.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-160/+125)
  George Kirby has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per outing this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Stolen Bases (+550/-1000)
  Josh Naylor has averaged 29.2 steals per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 93rd percentile for base-stealing.
  Explain: Players who steal bases tend to continue stealing bases (and visa-versa).
• Seattle Mariners hitters collectively have been one of the best in the majors this year (6th-) as it relates to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Mets Insights

• Clay Holmes – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)
  The Seattle Mariners have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Clay Holmes today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Juan Soto as the 19th-best batter in the league when estimating his batting average ability.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Today, Mark Vientos is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40.3% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 53 games (+4.80 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 56 of their last 104 games (+7.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+185/-245)
  Juan Soto has hit the RBIs Over in 7 of his last 9 games (+9.80 Units / 109% ROI)