Seattle Mariners
New York Mets
(-120/+100)-130
On August 15, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Seattle Mariners at Citi Field in an intriguing Interleague matchup. Both teams are having above-average seasons, with the Mets sitting at 64-57 and the Mariners at 67-55. This game marks the first of a series between the two clubs, adding to its significance as they look to gain momentum moving forward.
The Mets are projected to start Sean Manaea, a left-handed pitcher who has had a mixed season thus far with a 1-1 record and a 4.33 ERA. His advanced-stat Power Ranking places him as the 129th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he has been below average this year. Despite this, Manaea brings a high strikeout rate of 26.3%, which could be beneficial against a Mariners offense that ranks 5th in the league for strikeouts. However, he faces a powerful lineup that has belted 172 home runs this season, placing them 5th overall.
Luis Castillo, the Mariners’ projected starter, has been impressive with an 8-6 record and a stellar 3.19 ERA, ranking him 77th among MLB starters. He recently pitched 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs, showcasing his ability to handle pressure. Castillo’s low walk rate of 6.5% could be advantageous against a Mets offense that tends to draw walks, potentially negating one of their strengths.
Betting markets currently favor the Mets with a moneyline of -135, reflecting a close contest anticipated between these two competitive teams. With both offenses averaging around the middle of the pack in terms of production, the game total is set at an average 8.5 runs, suggesting a tightly contested showdown.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Luis Castillo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Luis Castillo’s 94.4-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 95.5-mph mark.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)This season, Cal Raleigh has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.2 mph compared to last year’s 94.9 mph mark.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Cal Raleigh pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.8% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Sean Manaea has a mean strikeout projection of 5.6 batters in this game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
- Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)In terms of his home runs, Cedric Mullins has been very fortunate this year. His 24.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.5.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-130)The New York Mets projected lineup ranks as the 3rd-strongest of the day in terms of overall offensive skill.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The New York Mets have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 47 games (+5.00 Units / 9% ROI)
- Seattle Mariners – Moneyline (+110)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 53 games (+7.65 Units / 10% ROI)
- Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)Eugenio Suarez has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+7.25 Units / 18% ROI)