Learn About Blue Jays vs Mariners Picks and Betting Trends – Saturday May 10, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Seattle Mariners

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 10, 2025, they come off an unexpected loss from their last encounter, falling 6-3. This game marks the second in the series, where the Mariners, with a record of 22-15, are enjoying a solid season. In contrast, the Blue Jays, sitting at 18-20, are showing below-average performance. This matchup is particularly crucial as both teams look to find their footing in a competitive American League.

Seattle’s Logan Evans is set to take the mound, struggling with a 7.20 ERA this season, which reflects a tough start despite a 4.70 xFIP suggesting he may have been unlucky. He averaged 5.3 innings pitched and projects to allow 2.2 earned runs today, but his low strikeout rate of 17.4% could provide an edge to a Blue Jays offense that is among the lowest in strikeouts this year. On the opposing side, Bowden Francis, with a 5.66 ERA, has also had a rough go, allowing 2.6 earned runs on average and pitching just 4 innings in his last start.

The Mariners’ offense ranks 6th in MLB this season, bolstered by a powerful lineup that has hit the 4th most home runs. This power could exploit Francis’s high fly-ball rate, potentially turning his mistakes into runs. Seattle’s ability to draw walks is slightly hampered by Francis’s good control, which could limit one of their strengths. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 22nd overall, struggling particularly with power, ranking 28th in home runs.

Despite recent inconsistencies, the Mariners are favored in this matchup with a moneyline of -140, projecting a team total of 4.27 runs. Given their overall standings and offensive capabilities, they appear poised to bounce back and take control of the series.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Bowden Francis’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Daulton Varsho may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Daulton Varsho pulls many of his flyballs (39.2% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Logan Evans – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (+105/-135)
  Logan Evans has been given less leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 15.6 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bowden Francis.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Seattle Mariners offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
• J.P. Crawford – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+590/-1100)
  J.P. Crawford has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 10 games (+11.00 Units / 110% ROI)