Toronto Blue Jays
Seattle Mariners
(-110/-110)-135
As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Toronto Blue Jays on May 10, 2025, the stakes are high in this American League matchup. The Mariners sit comfortably above .500 at 22-15, showcasing a strong season that has them eyeing contention. In contrast, the Blue Jays struggle with an 18-20 record, indicating a below-average season thus far.
The Mariners are looking to bounce back after a disappointing 6-3 loss to the Blue Jays in their previous game, while the Blue Jays will aim to capitalize on that momentum. Seattle will send Logan Evans to the mound, who has had a rocky start to the season with a 7.20 ERA over two games. However, his xFIP of 4.70 projects better performance, suggesting he may be due for a turnaround. Meanwhile, Bowden Francis takes the hill for Toronto, carrying a 5.66 ERA into this matchup. Both pitchers have struggled, but with Evans projected to allow a solid 2.3 earned runs today, he offers a slight edge.
The Mariners’ offense ranks 6th in MLB, highlighting their capability to produce runs, especially with power, as they also sit 4th in home runs. With 51 long balls, Seattle’s hitters could exploit Francis’s tendency to give up fly balls, potentially turning them into home runs. In contrast, the Blue Jays’ offense ranks 22nd, failing to generate significant power with the 28th fewest home runs this season.
Betting markets have set the Mariners at -135, suggesting it’s a close contest. However, considering the Mariners’ overall performance and offensive projection, they seem poised to regain their footing and secure a critical victory over the Blue Jays in this competitive series.
Toronto Blue Jays Insights
- Bowden Francis – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Bowden Francis’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this season (91.7 mph) below where it was last season (92.8 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)Daulton Varsho may have an advantage against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Anthony Santander pulls many of his flyballs (40.3% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Seattle Mariners Insights
- Logan Evans – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Considering that flyball hitters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Logan Evans and his 46% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard spot in this outing facing 2 opposing GB batters.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Bowden Francis.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- It may be smart to expect worse numbers for the Seattle Mariners offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year.Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Seattle Mariners – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)The Seattle Mariners have hit the Team Total Over in 21 of their last 32 games (+8.80 Units / 24% ROI)
- Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 19 away games (+6.20 Units / 28% ROI)
- Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)Cal Raleigh has hit the Hits Over in his last 9 games at home (+9.00 Units / 59% ROI)