Learn About Athletics vs Twins Picks and Betting Trends – Tuesday August 19, 2025

Athletics

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Minnesota Twins

On August 19, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Oakland Athletics at Target Field in what promises to be a compelling matchup as both teams continue to struggle through disappointing seasons. The Twins currently sit at 58-66, well below average, while the Athletics are slightly behind at 56-70. The last time these teams faced each other, the Athletics emerged victorious, emphasizing their stronger offensive capabilities.

Looking at the pitching matchup, the Twins will send out Joe Ryan, who boasts an impressive Win/Loss record of 12-5 and an ERA of 2.72 this season, ranking him as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. However, his 3.62 xFIP suggests that he may be due for a downturn. In contrast, Oakland’s Jacob Lopez, with a record of 6-6 and an ERA of 3.30, is ranked 61st, highlighting his above-average performance in comparison to Ryan’s elite status.

Offensively, the Twins struggle with a Power Rankings position of 21st, which is reflected in their poor batting average ranked 24th in MLB. On the other hand, the Athletics are thriving at 5th in overall offense, complemented by a stellar 4th ranking in team batting average. This offensive prowess is particularly significant given that Joe Ryan is a high-flyball pitcher, which could play into the Athletics’ strength, especially as they have amassed 174 home runs—ranking 6th in the league.

With a Game Total of 8.0 runs and the Twins favored at -150, the projections suggest a team total of 4.35 runs for Minnesota. Their ability to capitalize on their home field advantage could determine the outcome, especially if Ryan can avoid being exploited by a potent Athletics lineup. Overall, this matchup sets the stage for an intriguing battle between rising offensive power and elite pitching.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Jacob Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Luis Urias’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 82.4-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen projects as the worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Joe Ryan’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (62.9 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Typically, hitters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Jacob Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Kody Clemens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+125)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 63 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Kody Clemens has hit the Hits Under in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.90 Units / 69% ROI)