Learn About Athletics vs Twins Picks and Betting Trends – Tuesday August 19, 2025

Athletics

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to host the Oakland Athletics on August 19, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling in the standings. The Twins sit at 58-66, while the Athletics are slightly behind at 56-70. Despite their records, the Twins are favored in this matchup, given their recent performance and the quality of their starting pitcher.

In their last outing, the Twins secured a convincing 8-1 victory, showcasing their potential when the offense clicks. However, the Athletics are coming off a rough 11-5 loss, which doesn’t bode well for their confidence heading into this contest.

On the mound, the Twins will rely on Joe Ryan, who has been exceptional this season, boasting a 12-5 record and an impressive 2.72 ERA, ranking him as the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB. Ryan’s last start was particularly noteworthy; he went 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 7 batters. The projections suggest he will pitch around 5.7 innings today, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which is a solid expectation given his elite status.

In contrast, the Athletics will counter with Jacob Lopez, who has a more modest 3.30 ERA and a 6-6 record. While Lopez has performed above average, he faces a tough challenge against a potent Twins lineup. The Athletics’ offense ranks 5th in MLB, but they have struggled lately, and they will need to capitalize on Ryan’s flyball tendencies to turn potential home runs into runs scored.

With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, there’s an opportunity for a high-scoring affair, especially if Ryan’s luck runs out against the Athletics’ power hitters. The Twins hold an implied team total of 4.56 runs, indicating confidence in their ability to score, while the Athletics are projected for an average of 3.94 runs. Given the current odds, this matchup could tilt in the Twins’ favor if they can leverage their pitching advantage effectively.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+120)
  Jacob Lopez is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Luis Urias’s average exit velocity has declined lately; his 86.1-mph seasonal average has lowered to 81.8-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen projects as the worst in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Joe Ryan’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this season (62.9 vs. 54.4% last year) is not ideal consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Sacramento’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams on the slate creates a favorable matchup for Matt Wallner, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Kody Clemens – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+110)
  Kody Clemens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-160/+125)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 31 of their last 48 games (+10.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Athletics – Moneyline (+125)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 63 games (+9.00 Units / 14% ROI)
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Tyler Soderstrom has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.10 Units / 43% ROI)