Latest Player Stats for Yankees vs Mets – Sunday July 6, 2025

New York Yankees

@

New York Mets

On July 6, 2025, the New York Mets will host the New York Yankees at Citi Field in an exciting Interleague matchup. The Mets have been performing well this season, currently owning a record of 52-38, while the Yankees sit at 48-41. The Yankees will look to build on their recent 4-1 victory over the Mets in their last game, but they face a challenging task against a rival who is having a strong season.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Chris Devenski, who has yet to make a start this year but has shown promise in his four appearances out of the bullpen, posting a solid 3.60 ERA. However, advanced metrics indicate that he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 2.31 xERA suggests potential for improvement. Devenski will need to harness his high strikeout rate of 26.3% to counter the Yankees’ high-strikeout offense, which ranks 4th in MLB.

In contrast, the Yankees will send out Max Fried, a highly regarded left-handed pitcher with an impressive 2.13 ERA and a 10-2 record this year. Fried’s consistent performance makes him one of the elite pitchers in the league, and he will aim to keep the potent Mets lineup in check.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 2nd best offense in MLB, highlighted by their power, as they rank 2nd in home runs. The projections indicate they will score an impressive 5.32 runs today, while the Mets are projected at just 3.68 runs, despite ranking 8th in overall offensive talent. The game total currently sits at a high 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a high-scoring affair.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)
  Because groundball hitters struggle against groundball pitchers, Max Fried (52.2% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 2 GB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• DJ LeMahieu – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Bats such as DJ LeMahieu with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Chris Devenski who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The New York Yankees have 4 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trent Grisham, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

New York Mets Insights

• Brandon Waddell – Over/Under Strikeouts
  As it relates to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Brandon Waddell in the 8th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  In the last 7 days, Francisco Lindor’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.2% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Moneyline (+170)
  The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 45 games at home (+11.95 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 43 of their last 72 games (+13.37 Units / 17% ROI)
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+165/-215)
  Mark Vientos has hit the Runs Under in his last 6 games (+6.00 Units / 54% ROI)