Latest Player Stats for Pirates vs Marlins – Saturday March 29, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Miami Marlins

On March 29, 2025, the Miami Marlins will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at LoanDepot Park in what promises to be a competitive National League matchup. Both teams enter this contest with identical records of 1-1, indicating they are off to average starts this season. In their previous game, the Marlins managed a solid victory, which could give them a psychological edge heading into this series finale.

The matchup on the mound features Valente Bellozo for the Marlins and Bailey Falter for the Pirates. Bellozo, ranked as the 424th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, has struggled with his projections, averaging 4.8 innings pitched while allowing 2.7 earned runs and 5.0 hits. His performance is critical, as he also projects to walk 1.3 batters, which could lead to scoring opportunities for the Pirates.

Conversely, Falter also finds himself among the lower ranks of pitchers in MLB. He projects similarly to Bellozo, with an average of 4.8 innings pitched, allowing 2.5 earned runs, but he struggles with walks and hits as well, allowing 5.3 hits and 1.3 walks on average. This matchup looks evenly matched on paper, but the projections suggest that both pitchers are likely to be challenged.

The betting markets indicate a close game, with the Marlins set at +100 and an average implied team total of 4.15 runs, while the Pirates are at -120 with a slightly higher implied total of 4.35 runs. Given these numbers, the Marlins may have a slight advantage, especially considering they are coming off a win and will be looking to build momentum at home. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, expect a competitive and potentially high-scoring affair.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Bailey Falter will hold the advantage matching up with 8 bats in the projected batting order who bat from the other side today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Joey Bart has a ton of pop (80th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (29.3% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Valente Bellozo is a pitch-to-contact type (19th percentile K%) — great news for Bart.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Pittsburgh Pirates – 2H Moneyline
  The Pittsburgh Pirates bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Miami Marlins – Moneyline (+100)
  The Miami Marlins outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest out of all the teams in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Dane Myers hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 48 games at home (+18.90 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 78 away games (+5.10 Units / 6% ROI)
• Dane Myers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)
  Dane Myers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 7 of his last 10 games at home (+4.75 Units / 43% ROI)