In-depth Player Analysis for Reds vs Pirates – Sunday August 25, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Cincinnati Reds on August 25, 2024, in a pivotal matchup of two below-average National League Central teams. Both squads are struggling to find their footing, with the Pirates holding a 61-68 record and the Reds slightly better at 63-67. In their last game against each other, the Reds took the win, putting them in a position to capitalize on their momentum as they look to navigate the season’s final stretch.

The Pirates are projected to start Luis Ortiz, who has had an up-and-down season with a Win/Loss record of 5-4 and a solid ERA of 3.56. However, Ortiz ranks as the 221st best starting pitcher in MLB, reflecting a season where he’s been lucky compared to his 4.70 xFIP. This game falls into a unique dynamic, as Ortiz is a low-strikeout pitcher facing a high-strikeout Reds offense, which may offer him a favorable matchup.

On the other hand, Nick Martinez is projected to take the mound for Cincinnati. With a 6-6 record and a good ERA of 3.64, Martinez is deemed an average pitcher this season. Yet, like Ortiz, he has struggled, projecting to pitch only 4.0 innings on average and allowing 2.2 earned runs, which isn’t ideal for a competitive outing.

While the Pirates rank 27th in overall offensive production, they’ve seen a recent uptick from their best hitter, Oneil Cruz, who has recorded 8 hits and 3 stolen bases over the last week. Conversely, the Reds boast a more balanced offense, ranking 16th overall, but they’ve been led recently by Noelvi Marte, who has a batting average of .385 over the same span.

With both teams not contending for a playoff spot and each looking to build some late-season momentum, the projections favor a close game. The Pirates are expected to score 5.00 runs, while the Reds are slightly ahead at 5.18 runs on average. Given these stats and dynamics, fans can anticipate an intriguing clash at PNC Park.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (-110)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (6.9) suggests that Santiago Espinal has experienced some positive variance this year with his 16.8 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cincinnati Reds – 2H Moneyline
  The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 6th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Luis Ortiz has a mean projection of 5.5 hits today, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Bryan De La Cruz is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 90% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Joey Bart – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Joey Bart pulls many of his flyballs (33.7% — 79th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 9th-deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-170)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 82 games (+14.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 55 away games (+10.60 Units / 13% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+900/-2500)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 13 games at home (+10.50 Units / 81% ROI)