In-depth Player Analysis for Marlins vs Reds – Sunday July 14, 2024

Miami Marlins

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Cincinnati Reds

As the Cincinnati Reds and Miami Marlins prepare for their matchup on July 14, 2024, at Great American Ball Park, the tale of two seasons couldn’t be more contrasting. The Reds, sitting at 47-49, are having an average season but appear to be in a better spot than the struggling Marlins, who are 32-63 and enduring a terrible season.

The Reds, who will start Nick Lodolo, have a clear advantage on the mound. Lodolo has been solid this season with a strong 8-3 record and a 3.30 ERA, which ranks him as the 49th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stat Power Rankings. However, his 3.80 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate. The projections from THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, expect Lodolo to pitch 5.1 innings, allow 2.5 earned runs, and strike out 5.5 batters today.

On the other side, the Marlins will counter with Trevor Rogers, who has struggled mightily this season. With a 1-9 record and a 4.82 ERA, Rogers is considered one of the worst pitchers in MLB. Projections indicate he will pitch 4.9 innings, allow 3.1 earned runs, and strike out 4.5 batters.

Offensively, the Reds are middle-of-the-pack overall, ranking 16th in MLB, but have some strengths, including ranking 1st in stolen bases and 14th in home runs. This contrasts sharply with the Marlins, who have the worst offense in MLB, ranking 30th in home runs and 24th in both batting average and stolen bases.

Rece Hinds has been a standout for the Reds over the last week, hitting .500 with 5 home runs and a 1.951 OPS in 6 games. In contrast, the Marlins’ best hitter over the same span, Jesus Sanchez, has a .278 average with 2 home runs and a 1.094 OPS in 5 games.

The Reds’ bullpen has been a weak spot, ranking 25th in Power Rankings, while the Marlins’ bullpen is more reliable at 15th. Despite this, the Reds are the big betting favorites with a moneyline of -180 and an implied win probability of 62%. The Marlins, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +155 and a 38% implied win probability.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Trevor Rogers – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  With 9 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Trevor Rogers will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Jesus Sanchez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-135/+105)
  Jesus Sanchez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (92% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 7.2% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins ranks them as the #24 team in the majors this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Nick Lodolo – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Placing in the 81st percentile, Nick Lodolo put up a 12.7% Swinging Strike rate this year.
  Explain: Swinging Strike% measures how often a pitcher gets a batter to whiff at a pitch and is regarded to be a strong indicator of strikeout ability and overall pitching talent.
• Jonathan India – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Jonathan India’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.4-mph average last season has decreased to 87.7-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Austin Slater – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line -1.5 (+105)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 84 games (+11.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 49 of their last 82 games (+12.50 Units / 13% ROI)
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-115/-115)
  Bryan De La Cruz has hit the Singles Under in 10 of his last 12 away games (+8.20 Units / 62% ROI)