In-depth Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Rockies – Monday August 04, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Colorado Rockies

On August 4, 2025, the Colorado Rockies will host the Toronto Blue Jays at Coors Field for the first game of their interleague series. Both teams enter this matchup with contrasting fortunes, with the Blue Jays firmly in contention at 65-48, while the Rockies are struggling with a disappointing 30-81 record. The Rockies have been particularly rough lately, having lost their last game against the Los Angeles Dodgers by a score of 9-5, while the Blue Jays also tasted defeat, falling to the Tampa Bay Rays 7-4.

The matchup features Tanner Gordon, who has had a rough season, projected as Colorado’s starter. Gordon’s Power Rankings position at #285 out of approximately 350 pitchers indicates he is among the least effective in MLB. He has a 2-3 record and a below-average ERA of 4.85, and in his last outing, he allowed 6 earned runs over just 3 innings. On the other side, Toronto will send Eric Lauer to the mound. Lauer has a much more favorable season with a 6-2 record and an impressive 2.68 ERA. His recent performance was solid, having tossed 5 innings with only 2 earned runs allowed in his last start.

Both offenses reflect their respective teams’ standings; the Blue Jays boast the 6th best offense in MLB, while the Rockies rank 25th. The projections suggest that the Rockies could struggle offensively against Lauer, who is known for his ability to limit walks, facing a Rockies lineup that is among the least patient in the league. Meanwhile, the game total is set at a high 12.0 runs, reflecting expectations of offensive output, particularly from the Blue Jays.

With the Blue Jays as significant favorites, their offense’s ability to exploit Gordon’s struggles could lead to a favorable outcome for Toronto. The Rockies, however, will look to find some consistency and capitalize on any opportunities presented.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  Eric Lauer is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-215)
  Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays project to score the most runs of all teams on the slate, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  With a 1.58 deviation between Tanner Gordon’s 7.01 ERA and his 5.44 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season and figures to see positive regression in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Thairo Estrada – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Thairo Estrada’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 83.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .302 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 99 games (+9.42 Units / 8% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-210)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 75 games (+15.59 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)