In-depth Player Analysis for Blue Jays vs Rockies – Monday August 04, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies and the Toronto Blue Jays are set to clash at Coors Field on August 4, 2025, in the first game of their interleague series. Both teams find themselves in contrasting situations as the Rockies, with a dismal 30-81 record, are struggling this season, while the Blue Jays are enjoying a solid 65-48 campaign. The Rockies are fresh off a loss to the New York Mets, falling 9-5, while the Blue Jays also faced defeat, losing 7-4 against the Chicago White Sox.

Projected starters Tanner Gordon and Eric Lauer offer a tale of two pitchers. Tanner Gordon, a right-hander, has had a rough season, ranking as the 285th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. He holds a 2-3 record with a 4.85 ERA and has struggled recently, allowing 6 earned runs in just 3 innings in his last outing. Gordon’s low strikeout rate (13.2 K%) might be a concern against a Blue Jays offense that strikes out the least in the league.

On the other hand, Eric Lauer, a left-handed pitcher, has been more effective, with a 6-2 record and an impressive 2.68 ERA. Although his projections suggest he might also have a challenging outing, Lauer’s ability to limit walks (5.9 BB%) could play to his advantage against the Rockies’ low-walk offense.

Offensively, the Blue Jays rank as the 6th best in MLB, boasting a potent lineup led by their best hitter, who has an impressive .289 batting average and .858 OPS. In contrast, the Rockies own the 25th ranked offense, which has struggled to produce runs consistently. With the Rockies projected to score nearly 5 runs, they will need every bit of that to keep pace with the Blue Jays, who are projected to score over 6 runs.

As the teams prepare to take the field, expect the Blue Jays to leverage their offensive prowess against a struggling Rockies squad, making them the clear favorites in this matchup.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Toronto Blue Jays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-190)
  Eric Lauer is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.5% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #8 HR venue in the majors in this game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Daulton Varsho – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-205)
  Daulton Varsho is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 84% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Toronto Blue Jays project to score the most runs of all teams on the slate, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+145)
  With a 1.58 deviation between Tanner Gordon’s 7.01 ERA and his 5.44 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in the league since the start of last season and figures to see positive regression in future games.
  Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
• Thairo Estrada – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Thairo Estrada’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 86.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 83.2-mph in the last two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Compared to their .316 overall projected rate, the .300 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected batting order today suggests this version of the lineup quite a bit a bit watered down.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 99 games (+9.42 Units / 8% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Moneyline (-205)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Moneyline in 47 of their last 75 games (+15.59 Units / 17% ROI)
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-140/+110)
  Bo Bichette has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 31% ROI)