In-depth Player Analysis for Athletics vs Rays – Monday June 30, 2025

Athletics

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Tampa Bay Rays

On June 30, 2025, the Tampa Bay Rays will host the Oakland Athletics at George M. Steinbrenner Field in what marks the first game of their series. The Rays currently sit with a solid 47-37 record, while the Athletics struggle at 34-52. Despite their woes, the Athletics managed to show some fight recently, but a lack of consistency has left them as significant underdogs in this matchup.

Tampa Bay’s Drew Rasmussen is projected to take the mound, holding a 7-5 record and an impressive ERA of 2.45 this season, which ranks him as the 19th best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Rasmussen’s performance suggests he can handle the Athletics’ lineup, which ranks 11th in overall offense but features inconsistencies. With a projected 1.9 earned runs allowed today, he is positioned to limit scoring opportunities.

In contrast, Oakland’s Jacob Lopez, with a 2-4 record and a 3.56 ERA, is not having a terrible season but faces a daunting challenge. His xFIP of 4.25 indicates a potential for regression, and with a projected 4.8 innings pitched, he may not go deep into the game. The Athletics’ offense, while decent in home runs, ranks 20th in stolen bases, suggesting a lack of overall aggressiveness on the bases.

The Rays’ offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking as the 2nd best team in batting average and 7th in overall offensive performance. This combination of a strong offense and an elite bullpen, ranked 6th, sets the Rays up as favorites with a high implied team total of 4.54 runs. Meanwhile, the Athletics are projected for a mere 3.46 runs, reinforcing the uphill battle they face. With a favorable matchup for Rasmussen and a potent Rays lineup, Tampa Bay looks poised to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Athletics Insights

• Jacob Lopez – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-165/+130)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have 8 hitters in the projected offense that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob Lopez in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Tyler Soderstrom – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Tyler Soderstrom has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (89% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Drew Rasmussen – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+115/-145)
  Among all starters, Drew Rasmussen’s fastball spin rate of 2484 rpm is in the 90th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Bashing 4 long-balls over the past 14 days, Junior Caminero has been on fire in recent games.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Yandy Diaz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Run Line -1.5 (+115)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 25 of their last 40 games (+13.00 Units / 26% ROI)
• Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 21 of their last 36 away games (+4.85 Units / 11% ROI)
• Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Lawrence Butler has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 20 games (+7.65 Units / 35% ROI)