Los Angeles Dodgers
Pittsburgh Pirates
(-120/+100)+105
The Pittsburgh Pirates will host the Los Angeles Dodgers on September 4, 2025, at PNC Park for the third game of their series. The Pirates currently sit at 63-77, having struggled throughout the season, while the Dodgers boast a solid 78-61 record, positioning themselves well in the playoff race. In their previous matchup, the Dodgers emerged victorious, further emphasizing the disparity in the two teams’ current forms.
On the mound, the Pirates are projected to start Paul Skenes, who has been nothing short of remarkable this season, ranking as the 2nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 9-9 record, Skenes has an impressive ERA of 2.05, although his 3.08 xFIP indicates he may have been a bit fortunate this year. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 1.9 earned runs with a solid strikeout rate of 6.1 batters.
The Dodgers, countering with Blake Snell, have a strong advantage in this matchup. Snell, ranked 27th among MLB starters, has a 2.41 ERA and is a high-groundball pitcher, which could play to the Pirates’ weaknesses as they rank 30th in home runs this season. Snell’s projections suggest he will pitch around 5.4 innings, allowing 2.2 earned runs while striking out 6.9 batters. However, both pitchers face challenges, as they project to allow 4.5 hits and 2.5 walks, respectively, which could lead to scoring opportunities.
The Pirates’ offense ranks 29th overall, struggling to generate consistent runs, while the Dodgers’ offense ranks 3rd, showcasing their ability to score. Betting markets have set the Pirates’ moneyline at +105, reflecting a close contest, but with the Dodgers’ potent lineup and strong pitching, the projections favor them in this matchup. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, indicating a potentially tight affair.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Blake Snell’s curveball utilization has dropped by 5.2% from last year to this one (26.1% to 20.9%) .Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
- Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under Total BasesIn the last week’s worth of games, Enrique Hernandez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers’ bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best among all major league teams.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Paul Skenes – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)Paul Skenes’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this year (97.5 mph) below where it was last year (98.9 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Henry Davis’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 71.4-mph in the last 7 days.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Henry Davis – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)Henry Davis pulls many of his flyballs (36.4% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 11th-deepest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.