Guardians vs Royals Betting Guide and Expert Picks September 2nd, 2024

Cleveland Guardians

@

Kansas City Royals

As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 2, 2024, both teams are looking to capitalize on their current form. The Royals, with a record of 75-63, are having a solid season but have struggled of late, dropping their last game against the Houston Astros 7-2. Meanwhile, the Guardians sit at 78-59 and recently secured a convincing 6-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates, showcasing their strength as they continue to push for postseason positioning.

On the mound, the Royals will send Michael Wacha to the hill. Wacha, ranked as the 60th best starting pitcher in MLB, has had a decent season with an 11-6 record and a solid 3.50 ERA. However, his underlying metrics suggest he may have been a bit fortunate, as evidenced by a higher xFIP of 4.12. In his last outing, he struggled significantly, allowing 5 earned runs over 6 innings, indicating potential vulnerability.

The Guardians counter with Gavin Williams, who is having a mixed season with a 2-7 record and a 4.99 ERA. Though ranked 70th among starting pitchers, his 3.96 xFIP suggests he may improve moving forward. Williams performed well in his last start, limiting the damage to just 2 earned runs over 5 innings, which may help bolster his confidence.

Offensively, the Royals rank 12th in MLB, with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the charge, boasting a .340 batting average and an impressive 1.007 OPS. The Guardians, while slightly behind at 18th, have their own star in Jose Ramirez, who has a .275 batting average and a strong 0.863 OPS.

The projections favor a close contest, with both teams showing an implied team total of 4.00 runs. With both starting pitchers presenting some questions, the game total is set at 8.0 runs. As the Royals look to bounce back from their recent loss, they may find themselves in a favorable matchup against a pitcher in Gavin Williams who has been inconsistent throughout the season.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Gavin Williams’s 96.2-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a sizeable 1.2-mph spike from last season’s 95-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Lane Thomas has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (96% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Bo Naylor (the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+165/-215)
  Generating 17.4 outs per game per started this year on average, Michael Wacha places him the 83rd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Kansas City Royals – 2H Moneyline
  The Kansas City Royals bullpen profiles as the 7th-worst in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games (+9.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 31 away games (+11.70 Units / 32% ROI)
• Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-150/+115)
  Steven Kwan has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 15 of his last 19 away games (+12.05 Units / 61% ROI)