Guardians vs Rays Betting Line and Odds – September 05, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

@

Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to face the Cleveland Guardians on September 5, 2025, at George M. Steinbrenner Field, both teams find themselves in a tight battle for positioning, with the Rays holding a record of 71-69 and the Guardians at 69-70. This matchup is critical, especially after the Rays secured a 4-2 victory over the Guardians in their last outing, creating momentum in the series.

The Rays will send Griffin Jax to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has struggled this season with a 1-7 record and a below-average ERA of 4.98. However, advanced metrics suggest Jax may have been unlucky, as his 2.14 xFIP indicates he could perform better moving forward. In contrast, the Guardians will counter with Gavin Williams, who boasts a solid 9-5 record and an impressive 3.26 ERA. Williams recently pitched well in his last start, going 7 innings with just 1 earned run and striking out 8 batters.

Offensively, the Rays rank 14th overall in MLB, but they excel with a 7th-best team batting average and lead the league in stolen bases. The Guardians, however, rank 30th in overall offense, struggling significantly with both batting average and run production. This stark contrast could give the Rays a notable advantage.

The projections for this game favor the Rays, who are a betting favorite with a moneyline of -140, suggesting an implied team total of 4.27 runs. With their strong bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, and a high-performing offense, the Rays seem poised to capitalize on the Guardians’ offensive woes. This game has the feel of a pivotal moment in the series, with the Rays looking to build on their recent success while the Guardians attempt to find their footing.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average starter, Gavin Williams has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an extra 6.2 adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Angel Martinez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Angel Martinez is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ian Seymour – Over/Under Strikeouts
  Ian Seymour has been very fortunate when it comes to his strikeouts this year, compiling an 11.34 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.74 — a 2.60 K/9 gap.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Junior Caminero – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-140)
  Junior Caminero has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 99.5-mph over the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• As a team, Tampa Bay Rays bats have not performed well when it comes to hitting balls in the launch angle span that tends to optimize home runs (between 23° and 34°), placing 2nd-worst in the league.
  Explain: Balls that are hit too low can’t clear the fences, and balls that are hit too high generally don’t go far enough and are easy pop flies, but balls hit between 23° and 34° are far more likely to become home runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-145)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 68 of their last 120 games (+9.80 Units / 7% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 32 of their last 54 away games (+9.10 Units / 15% ROI)
• Josh Lowe – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Josh Lowe has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+6.60 Units / 66% ROI)