Guardians vs Rays Betting Guide and Expert Picks September 4th, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Tampa Bay Rays

As the Tampa Bay Rays prepare to host the Cleveland Guardians on September 4, 2025, both teams are looking to improve their standing in the American League. The Rays sit at 70-69, while the Guardians are slightly behind at 69-69. With playoff aspirations dwindling, each game carries significant weight, especially when the Rays recently secured a 9-4 victory over the Guardians.

On the mound, the Rays are set to start Ryan Pepiot, who has had an above-average season, ranking as the 67th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics. Pepiot’s last outing was impressive; he pitched five innings without allowing an earned run, striking out six batters. In contrast, Logan Allen, projected to start for the Guardians, has struggled, ranking among the worst pitchers in MLB. In his last appearance, he gave up four earned runs over six innings, and his high walk rate of 9.8% could be a vulnerability against a Rays offense that ranks 4th least in walks.

The Rays’ offense has been solid this season, ranking 14th overall but excelling in batting average (7th) and boasting a top-tier bullpen (4th). Their best hitter has been on fire lately, batting .500 over the past week, which bodes well against a Guardians lineup that ranks dead last in both overall offensive capability and batting average.

With a game total set at 8.5 runs, the Rays are favored to win with a moneyline of -165, suggesting a high implied team total of 4.74 runs. Given the matchups, the projections favor the Rays, who may capitalize on the Guardians’ pitching woes and continue their momentum.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Logan Allen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Logan Allen has used his four-seamer 13.6% less often this season (34.7%) than he did last year (48.3%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Kyle Manzardo has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 99.2-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.2-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nolan Jones, Collin Kayfus, Gabriel Arias).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Ryan Pepiot – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Ryan Pepiot’s 2408-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 75th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Cleveland’s #1-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Chandler Simpson, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Tampa Bay Rays – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays’ bullpen projects as the 4th-best out of all teams in Major League Baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 74 of their last 130 games (+10.70 Units / 7% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Under in 57 of their last 100 games (+8.09 Units / 7% ROI)
• Chandler Simpson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+190/-255)
  Chandler Simpson has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 25 games at home (+9.75 Units / 26% ROI)