Giants vs Twins Expert Picks and Betting Tips – Sunday May 11, 2025

San Francisco Giants

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins host the San Francisco Giants on May 11, 2025, there’s a palpable sense of intrigue. The Twins come off a narrow victory, having edged the Giants 2-1 in their previous matchup on May 10, while the Giants are looking to bounce back after a tough loss. With the Twins sitting at a mediocre 20-20 record and the Giants boasting a strong 24-16 mark, this interleague clash carries its weight in significance for both teams.

Projected starters Pablo Lopez and Landen Roupp present an interesting contrast on the mound. Lopez, ranked 27th among MLB starting pitchers, has been exceptional this season, posting a 2.18 ERA and a solid 3.21 strikeout rate. His recent performance further underscores his capability, as he racked up 11 strikeouts in his last start on May 6, highlighting a dominant stretch. However, projections suggest he may have been a touch lucky, indicating a potential dip in performance.

On the other hand, Roupp has shown flashes of promise but has struggled with a 4.89 ERA. His 3.49 xFIP suggests he has endured some bad luck this season, and he’ll look to turn that around against a Twins lineup ranked 21st in overall offense. With an implied team total of 4.54 runs, the Twins appear to have a slight edge, especially given their bullpen, which ranks 9th overall.

As both teams vie for momentum in this critical series, the matchup between Lopez and Roupp could prove pivotal. If Lopez maintains his form and the Twins can capitalize on their opportunities, they may well solidify their status as favorites in this contest.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Landen Roupp – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Landen Roupp must realize this, because he has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches a lot this year: 59.1% of the time, checking in at the 81st percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)
  Extreme flyball bats like Mike Yastrzemski are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Pablo Lopez.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Luis Matos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Luis Matos hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Pablo Lopez – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-175/+135)
  Pablo Lopez’s 93.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.1-mph fall off from last year’s 95-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Brooks Lee is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota’s 11.3° launch angle (a reliable stat to study the ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the game this year: #24 overall.
  Explain: A low launch angle generally means the hitter struggles to lift the ball into the air, which is a key component for power and home runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Run Line -1.5 (+135)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 29 games (+10.90 Units / 30% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.95 Units / 33% ROI)
• Trevor Larnach – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)
  Trevor Larnach has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 18 of his last 25 games at home (+11.55 Units / 41% ROI)