Giants vs Padres Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – 8/18/2025

San Francisco Giants

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San Diego Padres

On August 18, 2025, the San Diego Padres will host the San Francisco Giants at Petco Park in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Padres sit at 69-55, enjoying a solid season, while the Giants languish with a 60-64 record, struggling to find their rhythm.

In their last outing, the Padres showcased their pitching prowess with a complete game shutout, which could provide a morale boost heading into this matchup. San Diego’s Nestor Cortes is projected to take the mound, bringing a mixed bag of statistics with him. Despite his ERA of 5.71, advanced projections suggest he has been somewhat unlucky this season, as indicated by a lower SIERA of 5.16. Cortes projects to pitch around 5.6 innings while allowing 2.4 earned runs, but he may face challenges with his high flyball rate against a Giants offense that ranks 26th in the league.

Robbie Ray will counter for San Francisco, boasting a strong ERA of 2.98 over 25 starts this year. However, projections indicate he might be due for a regression, as his xFIP is higher at 4.01. Ray’s performance could be pivotal, especially since the Padres’ offense, although ranked 20th overall, has a slightly better batting average at 11th in MLB.

The Padres’ bullpen is a standout, ranked 2nd overall, which could be a decisive factor if the game remains close. With the Padres favored at -140, the current game total is set at a low 7.5 runs, indicating expectations for a potentially tight contest. All signs point to the Padres having the edge, particularly with their strong pitching and the Giants’ offensive struggles.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Robbie Ray’s fastball velocity has decreased 1.1 mph this season (92.9 mph) below where it was last year (94 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Jung Hoo Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

San Diego Padres Insights

• San Diego Padres – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-135)
  Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.5% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #10 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+115)
  There has been a decrease in Jose Iglesias’s average exit velocity this year, from 85.8 mph last year to 83.2 mph now
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the San Diego Padres’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best among all MLB teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 63 of their last 110 games (+13.90 Units / 11% ROI)
• San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 48 of their last 81 games (+11.60 Units / 12% ROI)
• Fernando Tatis Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Fernando Tatis Jr. has hit the Hits Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+7.75 Units / 56% ROI)