San Francisco Giants
San Diego Padres
(+100/-120)-130
As the San Diego Padres prepare to host the San Francisco Giants on September 7, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their standings in the National League West. The Padres are currently 81-62, enjoying a solid season, while the Giants sit at 69-73, having had an average year. This game marks the second in a crucial series, with the Padres having won the opener decisively, 5-1.
On the mound, the Padres are projected to start Dylan Cease, who has been solid this season with a 12-10 record and a 3.62 ERA. However, he has struggled recently, allowing 3 earned runs in 5 innings in his last start. In contrast, Logan Webb of the Giants, despite a strong 11-9 record and a 3.43 ERA, was less fortunate in his previous outing, giving up 6 earned runs on 8 hits, indicating a tough matchup against a potent Padres offense.
San Diego’s offense ranks 1st in MLB in team batting average, showcasing their ability to hit effectively, while their overall offensive ranking is 7th, providing a balanced attack. Jurickson Profar has been their standout hitter this season, contributing significantly with 22 home runs and an OPS of .842. Meanwhile, the Giants’ lineup has struggled, ranking 21st overall with their best hitter, Matt Chapman, recording a modest OPS of .780.
Despite the Padres being favored with a closing Moneyline of -125, the projections suggest a closer contest, favoring the Giants at 55%. This disparity presents an intriguing betting opportunity, especially given the Giants’ potential for an upset in this matchup. With both teams looking to assert themselves, this game promises to be a tight contest.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-105)Logan Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher (57% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Petco Park — the #3 HR venue among all stadiums — in today’s game.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Mike Yastrzemski is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Matt Chapman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Dylan Cease has gone to his slider 8.4% more often this year (47%) than he did last season (38.6%).Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jurickson Profar – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Jurickson Profar has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 95.9-mph in the last two weeks.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Dylan Cease – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Projected catcher Luis Campusano projects as a horrible pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-130)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 31 of their last 43 games (+14.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (+100/-120)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 26 of their last 48 games (+5.35 Units / 10% ROI)
- Xander Bogaerts – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-190)Xander Bogaerts has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+9.05 Units / 22% ROI)