Giants vs Braves Value Bets and Betting Line – 7/23/2025

San Francisco Giants

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves host the San Francisco Giants on July 23, 2025, both teams are looking to bounce back from their recent performances. The Braves suffered a shutout loss to the Giants on July 22, with a final score of 9-0, while the Giants are riding high after that impressive victory. With the Braves at 44-57 this season, they find themselves struggling, ranking 18th in overall offense and 20th in batting average. In contrast, the Giants are slightly better at 54-49, but their offense ranks 24th overall, indicating both teams are having difficulties at the plate.

On the mound, Spencer Strider is set to take the ball for the Braves. Despite a challenging season with a 4-7 record and an ERA of 3.59, he is ranked as the 21st best starting pitcher in MLB, showcasing his potential. Strider’s last outing was strong, going six innings with no earned runs, eight strikeouts, and only three hits allowed. However, he is known for his high walk rate, which could be problematic against a Giants lineup that has drawn the 5th most walks in MLB.

On the other side, Justin Verlander, projected to start for the Giants, has had a disappointing season with a 0-8 record and an ERA of 4.99. While his 4.25 FIP suggests he might be due for better fortune, Verlander’s recent struggles included giving up four earned runs in just three innings in his last start.

With the Braves being favored at -155 and an implied team total of 4.11 runs, they will need their offense to step up to support Strider. The Game Total is set low at 7.5 runs, indicating a potential pitcher’s duel, but both offenses will need to show improvement to make this game competitive.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)
  Justin Verlander is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.6% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be helped pitching in the #24 HR venue in Major League Baseball in today’s game.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Rafael Devers has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.3-mph to 101.3-mph in the past week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen projects as the 2nd-best in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Strider – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Strider has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.3% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Typically, batters like Ozzie Albies who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Justin Verlander.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Sean Murphy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Sean Murphy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 2nd-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 83 games (+8.00 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Under in 36 of their last 64 games (+9.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Matt Olson – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 17 of his last 25 games at home (+6.70 Units / 21% ROI)