Minnesota Twins
Cleveland Guardians
(-110/-110)-155
As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off against the Minnesota Twins on August 2, 2025, they are coming off a narrow 3-2 victory in their previous matchup. Both teams are currently hovering around .500, with the Guardians sitting at 55-54, reflecting an average season, while the Twins trail at 51-58, marking a below-average campaign.
Cleveland will rely on Tanner Bibee, who has had a solid season despite his 7-9 record and a 4.39 ERA. The advanced-stat Power Rankings place Bibee as the 58th best starting pitcher in MLB, highlighting his potential for improvement, especially since his xERA is a more favorable 3.59. In his last outing, he pitched 5 innings, allowing 4 earned runs, but he struck out 8 batters, showing flashes of excellence that could bode well for today’s contest. Bibee is projected to pitch 5.8 innings today, allowing only 2.4 earned runs on average, which is a good sign for the Guardians’ chances.
On the other hand, Bailey Ober will take the mound for the Twins. Ober holds a 4-6 record and a troubling 5.28 ERA, although projections suggest he may also see improvement. His last start was particularly rough, where he allowed 7 earned runs over 6 innings, signaling potential vulnerability against a struggling Guardians offense that ranks 27th in MLB.
The Guardians are a significant betting favorite for this matchup, with a moneyline of -175, reflecting an implied win probability of 62%. Despite the Guardians’ offensive struggles, their starting pitcher appears to have a favorable matchup against a Twins lineup that has also underperformed. As both teams look to find their footing in the second game of this series, the Guardians will aim to build on their recent success while the Twins search for answers on the mound.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Bailey Ober – Over/Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Bailey Ober to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.Explain: A pitcher who is on a pitch count is likely to be pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (+120/-155)Edouard Julien has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Edouard Julien has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Tanner Bibee – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Tanner Bibee’s four-seam fastball utilization has fallen by 17.2% from last season to this one (43.4% to 26.2%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Bo Naylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)The Minnesota Twins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Bo Naylor can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-155)The 4th-weakest projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Cleveland Guardians.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 45 of their last 80 games (+8.75 Units / 10% ROI)
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 27 of their last 37 games (+15.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Kyle Manzardo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+160)Kyle Manzardo has hit the Hits Over in his last 8 games (+8.00 Units / 50% ROI)