Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Rangers vs Red Sox – Wednesday, May 07, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face off against the Texas Rangers on May 7, 2025, at Fenway Park, both teams are looking to shift the momentum after a decisive game yesterday. The Rangers took the first game of the series, overpowering the Red Sox with a convincing 6-1 victory. This matchup features two clubs with slightly underwhelming records; the Red Sox sit at 18-19 while the Rangers are just above them at 18-18.

The Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the mound, who has struggled thus far with a Win/Loss record of 0-2 and a troubling ERA of 6.38. However, he pitched well in his last outing on May 1, going seven innings with only one earned run allowed. The projections suggest he could see better results moving forward, as his 3.93 xFIP indicates some bad luck. The Rangers are countering with Tyler Mahle, who has been exceptional this season with a 3-1 record and a standout ERA of 1.19.

Boston’s offense ranks 9th in MLB, showcasing strength in batting average, home runs, and runs scored. This is a promising sign, especially against a Rangers lineup that ranks 27th overall and has struggled to gain traction. The Red Sox’s hitting prowess could be crucial in this game, especially given the high Game Total set at 9.5 runs.

The betting markets indicate a close contest, with Boston’s moneyline currently at -135 and a favorable implied team total of 5.02 runs. This matchup presents a prime opportunity for the Red Sox to bounce back from yesterday’s defeat and capitalize on their offensive strengths against a solid but beatable Texas pitching staff.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Texas Rangers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)
  Tyler Mahle is projected to average 2.84 earned runs in today’s matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Corey Seager – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Corey Seager has seen a big gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 93.5-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Texas Rangers – 2H Moneyline
  The Texas Rangers bullpen profiles as the 4th-worst in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Tanner Houck – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Tanner Houck’s higher utilization percentage of his fastball this season (45.8 vs. 32.4% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Alex Bregman has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .412 figure is quite a bit higher than his .334 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 16 of their last 20 games (+11.60 Units / 52% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+10.45 Units / 34% ROI)