Get the Winning Probability and Match Preview for Astros vs Dodgers – Sunday, July 06, 2025

Houston Astros

@

Los Angeles Dodgers

On July 6, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Houston Astros at Dodger Stadium in a pivotal interleague matchup. Both teams are having great seasons so far, with the Dodgers holding a 56-34 record and the Astros at 54-35. With both clubs in the upper echelons of their respective divisions, this series is crucial for playoff positioning.

In their last encounter, the Dodgers edged out the Astros, adding to the excitement surrounding the third game of this series. The spotlight will shine on Dodgers’ pitcher Emmet Sheehan, who has had a stellar start to his season with a 2.25 ERA in just one game. His 1.56 xFIP indicates potential for even better results moving forward, despite projecting only 4.7 innings today. In contrast, Astros’ starter Colton Gordon, who’s made nine starts this year with an ERA of 4.37, has struggled against high-walk offenses like that of the Dodgers.

The matchup appears to favor the Dodgers, particularly given their top-ranked offense, which leads MLB in batting average, home runs, and runs scored. The projections suggest that the Dodgers will score around 5.10 runs, while the Astros are expected to manage only 3.90 runs on average.

Additionally, the Dodgers’ bullpen ranks 8th overall, while the Astros boast the 2nd best, hinting that late-game performance could be a decisive factor. Each team has capable hitters, yet recent performances showcase increasing offensive trends; the Dodgers’ best hitter is on fire with a .500 batting average over the last week, while the Astros’ leader has also been effective but won’t be enough to tip the scales against a dominant Dodgers lineup. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs and the Dodgers a significant betting favorite, expect a game that could further highlight their championship aspirations.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+150)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+125)
  Mauricio Dubon’s average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 85.1-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81.7-mph over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Houston Astros have been the 5th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-195)
  In his last outing, Emmet Sheehan performed well and gave up 1 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Mookie Betts – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Typically, bats like Mookie Betts who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Colton Gordon.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen grades out as the 8th-best in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 46 games at home (+9.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (+165)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 38 games (+17.00 Units / 32% ROI)
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+520/-900)
  Victor Caratini has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 8 away games (+19.80 Units / 247% ROI)