Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Royals vs Athletics – Saturday, September 27, 2025

Kansas City Royals

@

Athletics

As the Kansas City Royals head to Sutter Health Park to take on the Oakland Athletics on September 27, 2025, both teams are looking to finish the season strong but find themselves on different trajectories. The Athletics have struggled this year, sitting at 76-84, while the Royals are slightly better at 80-80, marking them as average contenders. This matchup is particularly important as it is the second game of their series.

In their previous encounter, the Athletics emerged victorious, showcasing their powerful offense, which ranks 7th in the league overall and boasts a 4th place standing in team batting average. The consistency in their lineup is highlighted by their best hitter’s recent performance—10 hits and a .500 batting average over the past week, contributing significantly to their offensive prowess.

On the mound, the Athletics will start Luis Morales, who has had a solid individual season with a 3.07 ERA. However, his advanced metrics indicate he has been a bit fortunate, as his xFIP stands at 4.49. Morales projects to allow 2.9 earned runs today, and his struggles with walks could prove critical against a Royals lineup that, while lacking power this season (25th in home runs), still poses a challenge.

Opposing him will be Michael Wacha, who, despite a 4.00 ERA, ranks as the 77th best starting pitcher according to advanced stats. He has pitched 30 games this season, although his xFIP of 4.56 suggests he might face difficulties as well. Wacha’s performance will be crucial, especially against the Athletics’ potent lineup that is ready to capitalize on any mistakes.

With the Athletics favored at -120 on the moneyline and an implied team total of 5.12 runs, they appear to be in a favorable position to continue their momentum. Meanwhile, the Royals, with a slightly lower implied total of 4.88 runs, will need a strong outing from Wacha to keep pace in this competitive matchup.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Wacha – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Michael Wacha has utilized his change-up 6.8% less often this year (25.5%) than he did last season (32.3%).
  Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Maikel Garcia has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 5.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 14 days.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Kansas City Royals batters jointly rank among the best in Major League Baseball this year (6th-) in regard to their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Athletics Insights

• Athletics – Moneyline (-120)
  The Athletics outfield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Nick Kurtz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  Nick Kurtz has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 94.7-mph over the past 14 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Carlos Cortes – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  Carlos Cortes hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Moneyline (-120)
  The Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 42 of their last 75 games (+14.95 Units / 19% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 87 of their last 146 games (+22.95 Units / 13% ROI)
• Darell Hernaiz – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+160/-210)
  Darell Hernaiz has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 15 games (+11.70 Units / 36% ROI)