Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Rockies vs Padres – Sunday, September 14, 2025

Colorado Rockies

@

San Diego Padres

As the Colorado Rockies visit Petco Park on September 14, 2025, they face the San Diego Padres in the fourth game of their series. The Padres are enjoying an above-average season with a record of 81-68, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 41-108. In their last matchup, the Padres dominated, winning 11-3, which highlighted the stark contrast between the two teams.

Yu Darvish is projected to take the mound for the Padres. Despite a mixed season with a 3-5 record and a 5.65 ERA, his advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his 4.22 xFIP indicates better potential moving forward. Darvish’s ability to strike out 6.1 batters on average bodes well, especially against a Rockies offense that ranks 27th overall in MLB. The Rockies will counter with German Marquez, who has had a rough season, posting a 3-13 record and a 6.31 ERA. His 14.7% strikeout rate could be a concern against a Padres lineup that has the 3rd lowest strikeout rate in MLB, potentially allowing San Diego to capitalize on Marquez’s weaknesses.

The Padres’ offense ranks 9th in team batting average, and their best hitter has been particularly hot lately, posting a 1.173 OPS over the past week. This momentum could play a crucial role in today’s game, as the Padres aim to build on their recent success. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ offense has struggled, ranking 27th in MLB and failing to produce consistently.

With the Padres having one of the best bullpens in the league, ranked 2nd overall, they appear well-equipped to manage any late-game scenarios. Given the stark differences in team performance and current form, San Diego is a strong favorite to secure another victory in this matchup.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+215)
  In his previous GS, German Marquez was firing on all cylinders and allowed 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Mickey Moniak is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Compared to their .318 overall projected rate, the .299 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA of the Colorado Rockies projected offense in today’s game suggests this version of the lineup a good deal weaker than usual.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to the average starter, Yu Darvish has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an -13.9 fewer adjusted pitches each outing.
  Explain: Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.
• Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• San Diego Padres – 2H Moneyline
  The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Diego Padres have hit the Game Total Under in 75 of their last 132 games (+15.25 Units / 11% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-130/+100)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 72 away games (+15.75 Units / 18% ROI)
• Ryan O’Hearn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-105/-125)
  Ryan O’Hearn has hit the Singles Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+6.25 Units / 28% ROI)