Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Red Sox vs Yankees – Saturday, August 23, 2025

Boston Red Sox logo

Boston Red Sox

@
New York Yankees logo

New York Yankees

-115O/U: 8
(-110/-110)
-105

The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox clash on August 23, 2025, in a pivotal matchup that continues their heated rivalry. Both teams are currently above average, with the Red Sox sitting at 70-59 and the Yankees at 69-59. With the Yankees boasting the league’s 1st best offense and the Red Sox ranked 7th, this series has significant implications for their postseason aspirations.

In their last encounter, the Yankees suffered a tough 1-0 defeat against the Red Sox, who secured the win with a stellar pitching performance. For today’s game, the Yankees are projected to start Will Warren, who has had a solid season with a 7-5 record and a 4.25 ERA. His advanced statistics suggest he might be a bit unlucky, with a 3.66 xFIP indicating potential for improvement. However, he faces a daunting challenge against the Red Sox lineup.

On the other side, Boston will counter with Garrett Crochet, the 4th best starting pitcher in MLB, who comes off a strong outing with 7 innings pitched, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 8 on August 17. His elite skills, particularly his strikeout ability (30.8 K%), could present a significant hurdle for the Yankees, who rank 6th in most strikeouts.

Notably, while the Yankees have a phenomenal home run record with 210 this season, Crochet’s ground-ball tendencies might limit their power surge. The projections indicate the Yankees could struggle to capitalize on their offensive strength against a pitcher of Crochet’s caliber.

With the game’s total set at 8.0 runs and the Yankees’ moneyline at +100, this matchup promises to be closely contested, making it an intriguing betting opportunity for those looking to capitalize on the intensity of this historic rivalry.

Boston Red Sox Insights

  • Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
    Garrett Crochet’s 95.7-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.4-mph drop off from last season’s 97.1-mph mark.
    Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
  • Alex Bregman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
    New York’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of all teams today creates a favorable matchup for Alex Bregman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
    Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
  • Boston Red Sox batters as a unit rank among the best in MLB this year (3rd-) as it relates to their 90.5-mph average exit velocity.
    Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Will Warren – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-150)
    Generating 14.7 outs per start this year on average, Will Warren ranks in the 22nd percentile.
    Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
  • Trent Grisham – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-110/-120)
    Trent Grisham has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.
    Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
  • Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
    Anthony Volpe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 6th-deepest CF fences today.
    Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

  • Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
    The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+7.87 Units / 12% ROI)
  • Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (-105)
    The Boston Red Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 36 of their last 58 away games (+12.30 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Trevor Story – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
    Trevor Story has hit the Runs Over in 8 of his last 10 away games (+9.15 Units / 92% ROI)