Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Rays vs D-Backs – Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks will host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 22, 2025, for the first game of their interleague series at Chase Field. This matchup is crucial for both teams, particularly the Diamondbacks, who are currently having a strong season with a record of 13-9, placing them in a competitive position in the standings. The Rays, on the other hand, are struggling at 9-13, having lost their last game to the Seattle Mariners by a score of 4-0, marking yet another disappointing performance in what has been a challenging start to the season.

Arizona will send Brandon Pfaadt to the mound, who has been solid this year with a 3-1 record and a 3.04 ERA. Despite being ranked as the 111th best starting pitcher in MLB, Pfaadt’s impressive last outing saw him go 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 6 batters. He projects to pitch around 5.7 innings today, with an average of 2.8 earned runs allowed.

In contrast, the Rays will counter with Zack Littell, who is still seeking his first win after starting the season 0-4 with a troubling 5.48 ERA. Littell’s last start was somewhat encouraging, as he also pitched 6 innings with only 1 earned run allowed, but his overall performance has been inconsistent. Today, he is projected to allow 3.1 earned runs, which could be a challenge against a potent Diamondbacks offense that ranks 3rd best in MLB.

Betting lines favor the Diamondbacks with a moneyline of -155, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities and Pfaadt’s reliable pitching. Meanwhile, the Rays are seen as underdogs at +135. Given the projections and current form, this matchup heavily leans towards Arizona, making it a compelling option for bettors looking to capitalize on the Diamondbacks’ solid play.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tampa Bay’s 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the majors: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 10.4% more often this year (54.8%) than he did last season (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)
  Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Zack Littell.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)
  Today, Josh Naylor is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.4% rate (76th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)