Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Rays vs D-Backs – Tuesday, April 22, 2025

Tampa Bay Rays

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Arizona Diamondbacks

As the Arizona Diamondbacks host the Tampa Bay Rays on April 22, 2025, both teams are looking to establish momentum in this Interleague matchup. The Diamondbacks, currently 13-9, are off to a strong start this season and recently edged out a victory against the Rays’ division rivals, winning 3-2 on April 20. In contrast, the Rays are struggling, sitting at 9-13 after suffering a shutout loss to the same opponents, falling 4-0.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-hander Brandon Pfaadt, who has been solid this season with a 3-1 record and a commendable 3.04 ERA. Pfaadt’s last outing on April 16 saw him pitch 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 6. His performance has been characterized as average according to advanced metrics, but he faces a favorable matchup today against a Rays offense that ranks 21st in home runs this season.

On the other side, Zack Littell will take the mound for Tampa Bay. The right-hander has struggled, with an 0-4 record and a 5.48 ERA. Despite some projections indicating he could improve, Littell’s low strikeout rate combined with the Diamondbacks’ potent offense—ranked 3rd overall—could spell trouble for the Rays.

The Diamondbacks’ lineup boasts the 8th best batting average in MLB, and their best hitter has an impressive .323 average with 19 RBIs. With the game total set at a high 9.0 runs and Arizona favored with a moneyline of -175, bettors will likely be placing their confidence in the Diamondbacks to capitalize on their home field advantage and the Rays’ recent struggles.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• Tampa Bay Rays – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Zack Littell is an extreme flyball pitcher (37% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Brandon Lowe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Tampa Bay’s 89.9-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the best in the majors: #9 overall.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Brandon Pfaadt has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 10.4% more often this year (54.8%) than he did last season (44.4%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Zack Littell.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Today, Josh Naylor is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.4% rate (76th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Arizona Diamondbacks – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Team Total Over in 12 of their last 19 games (+3.85 Units / 17% ROI)
• Tampa Bay Rays – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 11 of their last 17 games (+4.65 Units / 23% ROI)
• Corbin Carroll – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-185)
  Corbin Carroll has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 15 games (+8.15 Units / 53% ROI)