Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Cubs vs Marlins – Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Chicago Cubs

@

Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to host the Chicago Cubs on May 21, 2025, at LoanDepot Park, both teams are coming off a crucial matchup yesterday. The Cubs emerged victorious, further solidifying their strong position in the standings with a record of 29-20, while the Marlins languish at 19-28, struggling through a tough season.

Max Meyer is set to take the mound for the Marlins, boasting a respectable Power Rankings position as the 80th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he’s above average despite his 3-4 record and 4.47 ERA this year. Meyer, a high-groundball pitcher, faces a powerful Cubs lineup that has belted 68 home runs this season, ranking 4th in MLB. However, his ability to induce ground balls could mitigate some of the damage from the Cubs’ power-hitting prowess.

On the other side, Cade Horton will start for Chicago. While he holds a perfect 2-0 record in just two starts, his 6.00 ERA suggests he has struggled on the mound. The projections indicate that Horton may allow 2.2 earned runs today, which could be a challenge against a Marlins offense that, despite ranking 16th overall, has been performing better lately.

The Cubs rank as the 4th best offense in MLB, with strong performances in both batting average and home runs, while Miami’s offense has been inconsistent, particularly in their lower ranking for home runs at 21st. Given the Cubs’ firepower and the fact that they have had the upper hand recently, they are favored to win again today. With a high Game Total of 9.0 runs, bettors may find value in the Cubs’ potential to capitalize on their offensive strengths against Meyer, especially considering the Marlins’ struggling bullpen, ranked 26th overall.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-145)
  The Chicago Cubs infield defense profiles as the 3rd-strongest out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Kyle Tucker are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Meyer.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Max Meyer – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Max Meyer is expected to record an average of 5.4 strikeouts today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Matt Mervis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-105/-125)
  Matt Mervis has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Eric Wagaman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s 6th-shallowest CF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.75 Units / 23% ROI)
• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+105)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 27 of their last 42 games (+10.00 Units / 20% ROI)
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+135/-175)
  Kyle Stowers has hit the Singles Over in 14 of his last 25 games (+9.35 Units / 37% ROI)