Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Braves vs Brewers – Monday, June 09, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers

On June 9, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Atlanta Braves at American Family Field in what is the first game of their series. Both teams are coming off tough losses, with the Brewers falling 1-0 and the Braves losing 4-3. The Brewers, despite their recent struggles, are having an above-average season with a 35-31 record. In contrast, the Braves have been struggling significantly, sitting at 27-37.

The Brewers are projected to start Aaron Civale, who has had a mixed season. Civale’s ERA of 5.19 this year ranks him as the 186th best starting pitcher in MLB, making him one of the weaker options on the mound. However, the projections suggest he might have been unlucky, as his 4.61 SIERA indicates potential for improvement. Civale’s last outing was decent, where he allowed 2 earned runs over 5 innings, but he continues to struggle with walks, averaging 1.5 per game.

On the other hand, Chris Sale is slated to take the mound for the Braves. Sale has been dominant this season, boasting an impressive 2.93 ERA and ranking as the 10th best starting pitcher in MLB. He recently pitched 6 innings, allowing just 1 earned run while striking out 10 batters, showcasing his elite form.

Offensively, the Brewers rank 23rd in MLB in both batting average and home runs, indicating a lack of firepower. Despite this, they excel in stolen bases, ranking 2nd overall, which could be a factor against Sale. The Braves, while averaging out as the 17th best offense, have struggled with stolen bases, coming in at 26th.

With a low Game Total of 7.5 runs and the Brewers listed as underdogs with a moneyline of +145, this matchup presents an intriguing opportunity for bettors, especially given the disparity in starting pitching performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  In his previous GS, Chris Sale turned in a great performance and put up 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-170)
  The 3rd-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Because groundball hitters hold a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Aaron Civale and his 37.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in this outing going up against 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.8-mph average last year has fallen to 84.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers hitters collectively place 30th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 6.3% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)
• Caleb Durbin – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)
  Caleb Durbin has hit the Singles Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.60 Units / 25% ROI)