Get Recommended Player Prop Bets for Braves vs Brewers – Monday, June 09, 2025

Atlanta Braves

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Milwaukee Brewers

On June 9, 2025, the Milwaukee Brewers will host the Atlanta Braves at American Family Field for the first game of a series between these two National League teams. The Brewers find themselves in the midst of an above-average season, boasting a record of 35-31, while the Braves are struggling with a disappointing 27-37 record. Milwaukee’s last outing was a solid performance, but their offensive struggles remain a point of concern.

Projected to start for the Brewers is Aaron Civale, a right-handed pitcher with a less-than-stellar 5.19 ERA. While he has had some unfortunate luck this year, as indicated by his 4.61 SIERA, he still projects to pitch an average of 5.0 innings, allowing around 2.9 earned runs—a stat that reflects his ongoing challenges. The Brewers’ offense ranks 23rd in MLB, indicating significant hurdles in run production that could hinder their chances.

Opposing him will be Chris Sale, the Braves’ ace, who resides among the elite with a 2.93 ERA. Sale has shown consistent form, striking out an impressive 7.6 batters on average and projecting to allow just 2.1 earned runs per outing. While the Braves’ offense ranks 16th overall, their challenges in generating stolen bases (25th in the league) further illustrate their struggles this season.

Betting lines reflect the Brewers as underdogs at +145 with an implied team total of just 3.32 runs, while the Braves, at -165, have a more favorable outlook with an average implied total of 4.18 runs for the matchup. With Sale on the mound and the Brewers facing troubling offensive metrics, this game could lean heavily in favor of Atlanta despite the overall season records. It will be crucial for Milwaukee to find a way to break through against a top-tier pitcher if they hope to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Chris Sale – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  In his previous GS, Chris Sale turned in a great performance and put up 7 strikeouts.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Ozzie Albies has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (64% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-170)
  The 2nd-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-150)
  Because groundball hitters hold a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Aaron Civale and his 37.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in this outing going up against 2 opposing GB hitters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Joseph Ortiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Joey Ortiz’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.8-mph average last year has fallen to 84.5-mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Milwaukee Brewers hitters collectively place 30th- in MLB for power this year when judging by their 6.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 57 games (+12.15 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 19 of their last 30 games (+8.95 Units / 27% ROI)