Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Yankees vs Athletics Match – Friday, May 09, 2025

New York Yankees

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Athletics

As the New York Yankees prepare to face the Oakland Athletics on May 9, 2025, both teams are looking to gain momentum in their respective seasons. The Yankees currently sit at 21-16, having recently secured a narrow 4-3 victory in their last game. Meanwhile, the Athletics, with a record of 20-18, are coming off a tough 6-5 loss on May 7. This matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams will be eager to establish an early advantage.

On the mound, the Athletics will send Osvaldo Bido to the hill. While Bido has shown some promise with a 4.71 ERA this season, he ranks as the 285th best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating a challenging matchup against a high-powered Yankees offense. Bido’s low strikeout rate of 13.1% could be a concern, especially against a Yankees lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts but also possesses significant power, leading the league with 62 home runs.

Opposing him, Will Warren takes the mound for the Yankees. Warren, despite his struggles this season with a 5.65 ERA, projects to have a better outing today, as his xFIP of 3.52 suggests he has been unlucky thus far. His ability to pitch 5.2 innings on average could give the Yankees a crucial edge in the later stages of the game.

Offensively, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in MLB, while the Athletics rank 11th. The Yankees’ best hitter has been on fire, batting .400 with a 1.241 OPS, and they will look to capitalize on Bido’s flyball tendencies. With the game total set at a high 10.5 runs, expect an offensive showdown, but the Yankees are favored to come out on top, given their powerful lineup and the projections favoring them in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Will Warren’s high usage rate of his fastball (53.8% this year) is likely hurting his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.
• Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Anthony Volpe has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.8-mph to 95.1-mph in the past two weeks.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the New York Yankees in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .327, which is a fair amount lower than their actual wOBA of .347 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Athletics Insights

• Osvaldo Bido – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Osvaldo Bido’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.5 mph this season (93.3 mph) below where it was last year (94.8 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  JJ Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst of all teams today).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up well with the opposing team’s defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Athletics – 2H Moneyline
  The Athletics bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Athletics – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 22 of their last 32 games (+11.20 Units / 29% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-125/+105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 25 games (+5.07 Units / 18% ROI)
• JJ Bleday – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+110/-140)
  JJ Bleday has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 25 games at home (+10.55 Units / 23% ROI)