Milwaukee Brewers
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-175
The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers are set to face off in the final game of their series on July 7, 2024, at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are having excellent seasons, with the Dodgers boasting a 55-35 record and leading the National League West, while the Brewers are 52-38 and in the thick of the playoff race in the National League Central. Last night, the Dodgers secured a 5-3 victory, continuing their winning ways.
James Paxton, a left-handed pitcher, will take the mound for the Dodgers. Paxton has been solid in his recent outings, including his last start where he pitched 5 innings, allowing 2 earned runs with 3 strikeouts. Dallas Keuchel, another lefty, will start for the Brewers. Despite Keuchel’s high ERA of 6.75, his xFIP of 4.06 suggests he’s been unlucky and might perform better moving forward. However, Keuchel’s projections for today’s game are bleak, with an expectation of 4.5 innings pitched, 3 earned runs allowed, and only 3.1 strikeouts.
The Dodgers’ offense is a juggernaut, ranking 1st in MLB and fueled by the power of Shohei Ohtani, who has 28 home runs and a batting average of .316 this season. Over the last week, Will Smith has been on fire, hitting .375 with 4 home runs and 8 runs scored. The Dodgers’ ability to hit home runs could pose a significant challenge for Keuchel, who is a high-flyball pitcher.
The Brewers, although not as powerful, have a solid offense ranked 11th. William Contreras has been a standout with a .297 batting average and .806 OPS. Christian Yelich has also been hot recently, hitting .357 with 3 home runs in the past week.
The Dodgers’ bullpen is ranked 5th in MLB, while the Brewers’ pen sits at 18th, giving Los Angeles an edge in the late innings. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, the Dodgers have a 62% chance of securing the win. This aligns well with their status as -160 favorites, while the Brewers are +140 underdogs. Expect the Dodgers to leverage their offensive firepower and strong bullpen to close out the series with a victory.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Milwaukee Brewers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+155)Dallas Keuchel is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.4% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Dodger Stadium — the #3 HR venue in Major League Baseball — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140)Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (53% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup today.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- Christian Yelich – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-150)When estimating his overall offensive talent, Christian Yelich ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Freddie Freeman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.5-mph average.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-175)The best projected offense of the day in terms of overall hitting skill belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-160/+125)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.60 Units / 31% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+155)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 73 games (+6.10 Units / 7% ROI)
- Shohei Ohtani – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+140/-180)Shohei Ohtani has hit the RBIs Over in his last 10 games (+11.25 Units / 102% ROI)