Get Insights on the Score Prediction for Astros vs Dodgers Match – Saturday, July 05, 2025

Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Houston Astros in a crucial Interleague matchup on July 5, 2025, at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are among the top contenders in MLB, with the Dodgers holding a strong 56-33 record this season, while the Astros sit at 53-35. Notably, the Dodgers suffered a lopsided defeat against the Astros in their last game, falling 18-1 on July 4, a performance that showcased Houston’s offensive prowess.

For this game, the Dodgers are set to start Shohei Ohtani, who has had a limited presence on the mound this season with zero starts, featuring only in three games out of the bullpen. Despite a solid ERA of 2.25, projections indicate he might struggle against a low-strikeout Astros offense that ranks among the bottom five in K%. On the other hand, Framber Valdez will take the mound for the Astros. Valdez has been impressive, holding a 2.72 ERA with a 9-4 record in 17 starts, and is considered the 15th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced metrics.

The Dodgers boast the 1st best offense in MLB, leading in home runs and batting average, which could pose a significant challenge for Valdez, a high-groundball pitcher. However, projections suggest that Valdez may not be as sharp as his stats indicate, and the Dodgers could capitalize on any mistakes he makes.

With the Dodgers currently favored with a moneyline of -150 and an implied team total of 4.60 runs, they look to bounce back after yesterday’s rough outing, while the Astros aim to build on their recent success. This matchup promises to be a compelling battle between two elite teams.

Houston Astros Insights

• Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+115)
  Framber Valdez performed well in his previous game started and gave up 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Cam Smith is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Houston Astros have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Shohei Ohtani may not remain in the game more than a couple framess considering he will be treated as more of an opener.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)
  Enrique Hernandez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a group place 3rd- in MLB for power this year when using their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 38 games at home (+12.10 Units / 29% ROI)
• Houston Astros – Moneyline (+135)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+16.50 Units / 24% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Freddie Freeman has hit the Runs Under in 17 of his last 25 games (+8.30 Units / 27% ROI)