Houston Astros
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-140
On July 5, 2025, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Houston Astros in what promises to be an exciting Interleague matchup at Dodger Stadium. Both teams are having strong seasons, with the Dodgers holding a record of 56-33, while the Astros are just behind at 53-35. This game is crucial as the two teams vie for playoff positioning.
In their previous meeting, the Dodgers showcased their offensive prowess, leading to a decisive victory over the Astros. The Dodgers’ offense ranks as the 1st best in MLB, excelling particularly in home runs, where they also sit at 1st with 139 this season. Meanwhile, the Astros’ offense ranks 12th overall, showing some consistency but lacking the same power as their opponents.
Shohei Ohtani is projected to start for the Dodgers, bringing an impressive 2.25 ERA this season, despite having only made three appearances from the bullpen. However, his low strikeout rate of 18.8% might pose challenges against a low-strikeout Astros lineup. Ohtani’s projections indicate he may struggle today, with an expected performance of just 3.2 innings pitched and allowing 1.3 earned runs on average.
On the other side, Framber Valdez, who has started 17 games this season with a solid 2.72 ERA, will take the mound for the Astros. His groundball-heavy approach (62% GB%) could be advantageous against the Dodgers’ powerful lineup, though he is projected to allow 3.1 earned runs over 5.7 innings.
As the Dodgers are favored with a moneyline of -140 and an implied team total of 4.54 runs, this matchup sets the stage for an intriguing battle between two elite pitchers and two talented offenses. With the stakes high, fans can expect a thrilling contest.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+105)Framber Valdez performed well in his previous game started and gave up 0 ER.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Yainer Diaz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)Yainer Diaz has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this game.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-least strikeout-prone lineup today is the Houston Astros with a 20.3% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Shohei Ohtani may not remain in the game more than a couple framess considering he will be treated as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Enrique Hernandez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Enrique Hernandez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.5-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 90.3-mph mark.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 2H MoneylineThe Los Angeles Dodgers bullpen projects as the 6th-best in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.