Kansas City Royals
Minnesota Twins
(-120/+100)+100
The Minnesota Twins will host the Kansas City Royals at Target Field on August 9, 2025, in the second game of a pivotal series. The Twins currently sit at 55-60, struggling through a below-average season, while the Royals are slightly ahead at 57-59, showcasing an average performance this year. The Twins are coming off a solid victory over the Royals, winning 9-4 in their last matchup, which may give them a psychological edge heading into this game.
Bailey Ober is projected to take the mound for the Twins. Although he has a Win/Loss record of 4-6 and an ERA of 5.38, his underlying metrics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, with a SIERA of 4.64, indicating potential for improvement. Ober’s low strikeout rate (18.2 K%) could be a concern against a Royals lineup that rarely strikes out, ranking 2nd least in MLB. However, he may benefit from facing a Royals offense that has struggled to generate power, ranking 3rd least in home runs this season.
On the other side, the Royals will counter with Noah Cameron, who has a solid ERA of 2.68 but also shows signs of potential regression with an xFIP of 4.05. Cameron’s recent performance has been respectable, but he faces a Twins offense that ranks 15th overall, suggesting they have the capability to exploit any mistakes he makes.
With the Twins’ offense projected to score around 4.15 runs and the Royals slightly higher at 4.35 runs, the game total is set at an average 8.5 runs. Given the current odds and projections, the Twins may have a better chance of exceeding expectations in this matchup despite their recent struggles.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Noah Cameron – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Noah Cameron has a large reverse platoon split and has the benefit of facing 7 opposite-handed bats in this matchup.Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Extreme groundball bats like Salvador Perez tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Randal Grichuk – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)Randal Grichuk hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Minnesota Twins Insights
- Bailey Ober – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.8 mph this season (89.9 mph) below where it was last season (91.7 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
- Royce Lewis – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-145/+115)Royce Lewis is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Minnesota Twins – Moneyline (+100)The 5th-worst projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the the Minnesota Twins.Explain: A pitcher who faces a weak opposing offense will be more likely to exceed his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-155/+120)The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 17 games at home (+8.20 Units / 39% ROI)
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 56 of their last 90 games (+19.05 Units / 18% ROI)
- Luke Keaschall – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)Luke Keaschall has hit the Total Bases Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+5.95 Units / 40% ROI)