Get Expert Player Predictions for Rockies vs Red Sox – July 09, 2025

Colorado Rockies

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Boston Red Sox

On July 9, 2025, the Boston Red Sox will host the Colorado Rockies at Fenway Park in what is shaping up to be a pivotal interleague matchup. The Red Sox, boasting a record of 48-45, are having an above-average season and rank as the 5th best offense in MLB, while the Rockies are struggling significantly at 21-71. Their recent form reflected this disparity, as the Rockies lost yesterday, while the Red Sox are riding a modest wave of momentum.

Projected starters Lucas Giolito and Antonio Senzatela present a sharp contrast in performance. Giolito, despite being ranked 141st among pitchers according to advanced metrics, has a solid ERA of 3.66 and a favorable Win/Loss mark of 5-1 this year. However, his stats suggest he has been lucky, indicated by a higher expected ERA of 4.78. He projects to pitch an average of 5.9 innings, allowing approximately 2.6 earned runs, while striking out 6.6 batters, a performance that looks favorable against the Rockies’ lackluster offense, which ranks 25th in MLB.

Senzatela, on the other hand, is having a dismal season with a 6.57 ERA and a troubling 3-12 record. Although the projections offer a glimmer of hope, suggesting he could perform better than his numbers indicate, his low strikeout rate of 11.0% against the 3rd highest strikeout offense in the Red Sox makes for a daunting matchup.

With Boston a massive betting favorite at -295, the high implied team total of 5.65 runs reflects their potent offense. Meanwhile, the Rockies’ struggles mean they are considered significant underdogs with a projected team total of just 3.35 runs. The stage is set for the Red Sox to capitalize on their strengths and push their advantage further against a struggling Rockies team.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Antonio Senzatela – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball bats, Antonio Senzatela and his 46.4% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong position in today’s outing going up against 2 opposing FB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Mickey Moniak has been hot lately, whalloping 2 dingers over the past 7 days.
  Explain: Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  The Colorado Rockies bullpen projects as the 9th-worst in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Lucas Giolito – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Because of his reverse platoon split, Lucas Giolito meets a tough challenge matching up with 6 bats in the projected lineup who share his handedness in today’s outing.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform worse against same-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be worse against a right-handed hitter). Losing this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Hitters such as Wilyer Abreu with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Antonio Senzatela who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s shallowest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.