Get Expert Player Predictions for Pirates vs Orioles – Wednesday September 10, 2025

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Baltimore Orioles

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Pittsburgh Pirates on September 10, 2025, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, both teams are aiming to break out of their recent slumps. The Orioles defeated the Pirates 3-2 in their last matchup, adding to the Pirates’ woes as they’ve struggled through a disappointing season. Baltimore currently sits with a record of 67-77, while Pittsburgh trails at 64-81, both teams well below playoff contention.

The spotlight will be on Baltimore’s Tyler Wells, who has had a fortunate year, earning a 1-0 record with a solid 3.60 ERA across just one start this season. However, his 4.61 xFIP indicates that he may not sustain this level of performance going forward. Facing Wells will be Pittsburgh’s Paul Skenes, an elite pitcher with a 1.98 ERA and a 10-9 record this season. Skenes has demonstrated dominance on the mound, recently showcasing his skills with a six-inning performance that included eight strikeouts and no earned runs.

Offensively, the Orioles rank 20th in MLB, with their best hitter currently exhibiting a hot streak, boasting a .357 batting average over the last week. Conversely, the Pirates rank dead last in offensive production, struggling significantly throughout the season. This disparity could give the Orioles an edge, especially considering that Wells is a high-flyball pitcher facing a power-deficient Pittsburgh lineup that has the fewest home runs in MLB.

With a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, the Orioles are underdogs with a moneyline of +130, signaling potential value for bettors willing to back them at home against a struggling Pirates squad.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Paul Skenes – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Paul Skenes’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (51% compared to 32.4% last season) figures to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Hitters such as Tommy Pham with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Tyler Wells who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Tommy Pham – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Tyler Wells – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Tyler Wells’s 2372.3-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 75th percentile among all starters.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Samuel Basallo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)
  Samuel Basallo has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 4th-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Baltimore Orioles with a 25.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 70 of their last 118 games (+18.58 Units / 14% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 83 of their last 139 games (+21.45 Units / 13% ROI)
• Colton Cowser – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+160/-210)
  Colton Cowser has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 games (+6.75 Units / 36% ROI)