Get Expert Player Predictions for Mets vs Braves – August 24, 2025

New York Mets

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Atlanta Braves

As the Atlanta Braves prepare to face off against the New York Mets on August 24, 2025, the stakes are high, especially after the Mets triumphed over the Braves 9-2 in their last encounter. Currently, the Braves sit at 58-71, struggling through a disappointing season, while the Mets are in a much stronger position at 69-60, reflecting their above-average performance this year.

On the mound, the Braves will likely start Bryce Elder, who has had a rough year with a 5-9 record and a troubling ERA of 6.29. His last outing was particularly painful, as he allowed 8 earned runs in just 5 innings. However, the projections suggest he might perform better than his current numbers indicate, as his xFIP of 4.20 suggests he has been somewhat unlucky. Elder is expected to pitch about 5.1 innings, allowing around 3.0 earned runs, which could be problematic against a potent Mets lineup.

David Peterson, the Mets’ projected starter, comes off a remarkable complete game performance, allowing only 1 earned run while striking out 10 batters. With an 8-5 record and a stellar ERA of 3.18, Peterson is positioned well to exploit the Braves’ vulnerabilities. The projections suggest he will pitch slightly longer than Elder, with a projected 5.2 innings and 2.9 earned runs allowed.

Offensively, the Braves rank 14th in MLB while the Mets boast a 9th rank, showcasing a significant gap in overall offensive capability. With the Braves having a high implied team total of 4.48 runs, they’ll need to capitalize on every opportunity. Conversely, the Mets come in with an implied total of 5.02 runs, reflecting expectations for their strong lineup.

New York Mets Insights

• David Peterson – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  David Peterson’s curveball usage has increased by 5.2% from last season to this one (7.7% to 12.9%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Pete Alonso has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.2-mph average to last season’s 89.7-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (-140)
  The New York Mets projected offense grades out as the 4th-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Bryce Elder – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Bryce Elder’s 90.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 12th percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Ozzie Albies – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Extreme flyball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Atlanta Braves hitters jointly rank among the elite in baseball this year (10th-) as it relates to their 89.5-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 27 of their last 45 games (+10.20 Units / 20% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 58 games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)
• Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 2.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+125/-160)
  Francisco Lindor has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.00 Units / 59% ROI)