Get Expert Player Predictions for Brewers vs Twins – July 21, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers

@

Minnesota Twins

The Minnesota Twins and Milwaukee Brewers continue their interleague matchup on July 21, 2024, at Target Field. The Twins, who stand at 54-43, will look to bounce back after losing 8-4 to the Brewers yesterday. The Brewers improved to 56-42 with that win, maintaining their competitive edge in this series.

Both teams are having strong seasons, but the Twins have a slight edge today with Joe Ryan on the mound. Ranked 21st among approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB by advanced-stat Power Rankings, Ryan has been a reliable presence for the Twins this season. He holds a 3.53 ERA over 19 starts with a 6-6 record. Although Ryan struggled in his last outing on July 12, giving up five earned runs over five innings, he’s projected to allow just 2.4 earned runs over 5.7 innings today, indicating a favorable matchup.

On the other side, the Brewers will counter with Aaron Civale. Civale’s season has been less consistent; he holds a 4.94 ERA with a 2-7 record over 19 starts. Despite his higher ERA, his xFIP of 4.13 suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky and might be due for better performances ahead. Civale was solid in his last start on July 11, pitching six innings and allowing just one earned run.

The Twins’ offense ranks 5th in MLB, showcasing a well-rounded attack that’s 6th in batting average and 7th in home runs. However, their running game is lacking, ranking 25th in stolen bases. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ offense is no slouch, ranking 8th overall and featuring the 4th best team batting average. Their success is somewhat tempered by their 21st ranking in home runs, but they excel on the base paths, ranking 2nd in stolen bases.

Currently, the Twins are betting favorites with a moneyline of -160, implying a 59% chance of winning. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives the Twins a 57% chance to come out on top, making this a closely contested game to watch.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+140)
  The Milwaukee Brewers outfield defense projects as the 2nd-strongest out of every team today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• The Milwaukee Brewers project for the least runs on the slate, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• The underlying talent of the Minnesota Twins projected batting order today (.308 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a fair amount worse than their .323 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 27 of their last 42 games at home (+8.85 Units / 18% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 75 games (+7.40 Units / 9% ROI)
• Willi Castro – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-115/-115)
  Willi Castro has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.65 Units / 48% ROI)