
Milwaukee Brewers
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Los Angeles Dodgers
+170O/U: 7.5
(-120/+100)-200
(-120/+100)-200
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Jose Quintana – Over/Under 9.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Jose Quintana has averaged 91.2 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 76th percentile.Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Milwaukee Brewers – 2H MoneylineThe Milwaukee Brewers bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-230)Shohei Ohtani has had some very poor luck with his ERA this year; his 2.87 rate is significantly inflated relative to his 1.97 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).Explain: Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Max Muncy is an extreme flyball batter and faces the strong outfield defense of Milwaukee (#1-best of the day).Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)Max Muncy pulls a lot of his flyballs (41.3% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-deepest RF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-200)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 29 games (+13.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Milwaukee Brewers – Moneyline (+170)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Moneyline in 74 of their last 116 games (+24.35 Units / 15% ROI)
- Freddie Freeman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Freddie Freeman has hit the Total Bases Under in 8 of his last 9 games at home (+6.45 Units / 48% ROI)