Get Expert Player Predictions for Angels vs Twins – April 27, 2025

Los Angeles Angels

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Minnesota Twins

As the Minnesota Twins prepare to face the Los Angeles Angels on April 27, 2025, both teams find themselves struggling with subpar records early in the season. The Twins sit at 11-16, while the Angels hold a slightly better 12-14 record. Despite being in a rough patch, the Twins recently snapped a losing streak by defeating the Angels 5-1 in their last game on April 26, showcasing some resilience in a difficult season.

On the mound, the Twins are projected to start Joe Ryan, currently ranked as the 23rd best starting pitcher in MLB according to the leading MLB projection system. Ryan has had a mixed season, boasting a 4.00 ERA but an impressive 3.03 SIERA. He projects to allow an average of just 2.0 earned runs today, although his tendency to give up 4.3 hits per game could be a concern against the Angels’ powerful offense, which ranks 5th in home runs this season.

Jose Soriano, projected to start for the Angels, has a 4.34 ERA and a Win/Loss record of 2-3. He struggled in his last outing, giving up 5 earned runs over just 3 innings. Soriano’s projections suggest he may also face challenges today, as he’s expected to allow 2.2 earned runs and nearly 5 hits.

Both offenses have struggled this season, with the Twins ranking 22nd overall in MLB offensive metrics and the Angels sitting at 24th. However, the Angels’ ability to hit home runs could play a crucial role today against a pitcher like Ryan, who tends to allow fly balls. With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, the Twins are favored with a moneyline of -175, indicating confidence in their chances to secure another victory, especially after their recent win.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Jose Soriano – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Jose Soriano has recorded 17.4 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Mike Trout – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme groundball bats like Mike Trout generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Joe Ryan.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The Los Angeles Angels have 5 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Trout, Logan O’Hoppe, J.D. Davis, Jo Adell, Kyren Paris).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Joe Ryan – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Joe Ryan has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 10.4% less often this season (35.2%) than he did last year (45.6%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Edouard Julien – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+135)
  Edouard Julien has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (50% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Minnesota Twins batters jointly have been among the worst in the majors this year ( 7th-worst) as it relates to their 88.7-mph average exit velocity.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-175)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games at home (+4.35 Units / 21% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games (+5.35 Units / 29% ROI)
• Kyren Paris – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1000/-4000)
  Kyren Paris has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 9 away games (+13.50 Units / 150% ROI)