Get Betting Tips and Odds for Royals vs Mariners – 7/1/2025

Kansas City Royals

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Seattle Mariners

The Seattle Mariners will host the Kansas City Royals on July 1, 2025, in what is the second game of their series. The Mariners currently sit at 44-40, enjoying an above-average season, while the Royals lag behind at 39-46, marking a below-average showing. In their last matchup on June 30, the Mariners came out on top with a decisive 6-2 victory, showcasing their offensive strength, which ranks 10th in MLB. Meanwhile, Kansas City continues to struggle, with their offense ranked a dismal 28th in the league.

Emerson Hancock is projected to take the mound for Seattle, and while he has struggled this season (3-4 record with a 5.30 ERA), recent projections suggest he may have been a bit unlucky, as indicated by his lower xFIP of 4.60. Hancock’s average outing is projected to include 5.5 innings with 2.5 earned runs allowed, but he faces a Royals lineup that has the 2nd least strikeouts in MLB, which could neutralize his low strikeout rate.

On the other side, Michael Lorenzen will start for Kansas City. He has a 4-8 record with a 4.91 ERA and has also been considered unlucky this season, as his SIERA is lower than his ERA. Lorenzen’s tendency to give up fly balls could be a concern against a Mariners offense that ranks 6th in home runs.

With the Mariners’ strong bullpen ranked 2nd in the league, they are in a favorable position to capitalize on their offensive power and solid pitching. The Mariners are a betting favorite in this matchup, with a moneyline of -140, suggesting confidence in their ability to secure another win against the struggling Royals.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Michael Lorenzen’s higher utilization percentage of his secondary pitches this year (61.3% vs. 51.7% last season) should work in his favor considering they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Kyle Isbel – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  Kyle Isbel may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup in today’s games is the Kansas City Royals with a 20.2% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Emerson Hancock – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Emerson Hancock’s 2397-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 76th percentile among all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Jorge Polanco – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Typically, batters like Jorge Polanco who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Michael Lorenzen.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Seattle Mariners – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-best out of all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 35 of their last 61 games (+8.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 67 games (+25.55 Units / 32% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+100/-130)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Singles Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.35 Units / 56% ROI)