Get Betting Tips and Odds for Guardians vs Cardinals – 9/20/2024

Cleveland Guardians

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St. Louis Cardinals

As the Cleveland Guardians visit the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on September 20, 2024, there’s a lot on the line for both teams. The Guardians, with an impressive 89-65 record, are having a great season and are in the thick of the playoff race. Meanwhile, the Cardinals, sitting at 77-76, are having an average season and looking to finish strong.

The pitching matchup features a pair of right-handers: Kyle Gibson for the Cardinals and Ben Lively for the Guardians. Gibson, ranked #156 among approximately 350 MLB starting pitchers according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has been somewhat fortunate this season. His ERA of 4.11 is better than his 4.73 xERA, suggesting he might regress. On the flip side, Lively’s ERA of 3.87 is solid, but his 4.51 xFIP indicates he too has been pitching above expectations.

Offensively, both teams are fairly evenly matched. The Cardinals rank 18th in overall offense, with a notable 13th in team batting average, while the Guardians are right behind them at 19th overall but boast a top-5 rank in stolen bases, adding a dynamic element to their game. The Cardinals’ Brendan Donovan has been swinging a hot bat, hitting .370 with a 1.026 OPS over the past week, while the Guardians’ Kyle Manzardo has impressed with a .500 average and 1.571 OPS in his last five games.

The Cardinals hold a slight edge according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 53% chance to win, slightly above their implied probability. This sets the stage for a close contest, with both teams keen to capitalize on any edge they can find. With playoff implications looming, it’s a game neither team can afford to take lightly.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians infield defense grades out as the strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Josh Naylor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.3) suggests that Josh Naylor has been very fortunate this year with his 30.9 actual HR/600.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Cleveland Guardians’ bullpen ranks as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Kyle Gibson – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-150/+120)
  Recording 92.8 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Kyle Gibson places him the 78th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Jordan Walker – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-195/+150)
  Jordan Walker has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  Nolan Arenado pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42.7% — 100th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 6th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.75 Units / 44% ROI)
• Cleveland Guardians – Moneyline (-105)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 89 of their last 154 games (+12.82 Units / 6% ROI)
• Brayan Rocchio – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+1200/-7000)
  Brayan Rocchio has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 14 games (+11.50 Units / 82% ROI)